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CAD

01 Apr 2025

Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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01 Apr 2025

Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Tariff Decision

Trading activity is subsiding across financial markets this morning as participants prepare for today’s US job openings and Institute for Supply Management reports, and brace for tomorrow’s tariff decision. Equity markets are giving back some of yesterday’s late-session gains, ten-year Treasury yields continue to edge lower, and the greenback is trading flat against its major counterparts. Currencies look largely rangebound, but the euro is trading with a softer bias after bloc-wide inflation slowed last month, clearing the way for a rate cut at the European Central Bank’s April meeting. According to an update published by Eurostat this morning, consumer prices...

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31 Mar 2025

Market Selloff Accelerates as Tariff “Liberation Day” Comes Into Focus

Global financial markets are caught in a worsening downturn as the White House prepares to unleash its most significant round of trade levies yet. With President Trump expected to unveil broad-ranging reciprocal tariffs against trading partners on Wednesday, North American equity markets are setting up for a third day of losses, safe-haven demand is pushing benchmark ten-year Treasury yields below the 4.2-percent threshold, and the trade-weighted greenback is slipping against its major rivals as investors pursue growth opportunities outside the United States. Uncertainty is high. After a series of threats, drip-feed announcements, delays, and reversals, markets have no clear understanding...

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27 Mar 2025

Planes, trains & automobiles

• US tariffs. Tariff developments dominate the headlines. Yesterday the US announced 25% duties on vehicle imports. Reciprocal tariffs due 2 April.• Holding on. Equities eased, as did the USD. NZD ticked higher while AUD is hovering near ~$0.63. RBA & US jobs report also on the radar next week.• EUR risks. EUR strengthened over the past month. Is too much good news priced in? EU exposed to vehicle tariffs. EU is a large US trading partner. Global Trends US tariff developments continue to dominate the headlines and generate bursts of market volatility. Yesterday morning the US Administration came through...

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25 Mar 2025

Holding on

• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA outlook unchanged as overall fiscal impulse little different. Federal Election due by 17 May.• Data flow. Monthly AU CPI indicator released today. Global markets still focused on US reciprocal tariffs which will be announced on 2 April. Global Trends Market moves were rather modest overnight. A late-session rally in a few of the US big tech stocks saw the S&P500 eke out a small gain (+0.2%)...

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