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CAD

Loonie Falls As Bank of Canada Turns Dovish

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, but language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments tilted in a more clearly-dovish direction, helping lift market expectations for rate cuts in the first half of the year. Policymakers attempted to navigate a difficult communications challenge: while acknowledging signs of weakness in the economy and expressing approval of declining inflation pressures, they also sought to avoid repeating last year’s mistake – triggering a sharp rise in home prices and aggregate demand by encouraging an unwarranted easing in...

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Chinese Relief Efforts Boost Sentiment 

An escalation in Chinese stimulus efforts is helping boost global asset prices this morning, driving equity indices, commodity prices, and risk-sensitive currencies higher ahead of the North American open. The greenback is weaker, Treasury yields are slipping, and oil prices are holding steady in still-oversupplied markets. In an unexpected step, the People’s Bank of China announced it would lower the amount of reserves banks need to hold against their deposits for the third time in a year, potentially unlocking roughly 1 trillion yuan in new lending capacity. The move, which comes after a raft of securities purchases by China’s “national...

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Market Moves Run Out of Oomph

After a strong start to the year, rallies in US equity markets and the dollar appear to be nearing exhaustion this morning. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a flat open and the greenback is inching higher on a stabilization in ten-year Treasury yields above the 4.1-percent threshold. The Canadian dollar is drifting lower as traders brace for a cautiously-dovish central bank decision tomorrow. The Japanese yen is modestly stronger after the Bank of Japan left policy settings intact yet signalled a move out of negative rates territory was still in the offing. Policymakers left the short-term benchmark rate at...

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Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire. 1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate,...

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US Equity Markets Power Higher, Sustaining Dollar Strength

Equity markets are doing their best impression of Jason Kelce at a Buffalo Bills game, roaring into the week with strong gains in pre-open futures trading. Several major indices are flirting with record highs, commodity prices are up modestly, and Treasury yields are holding steady, with the ten-year paying close to 4.1 percent, up sharply from the beginning of the year. The dollar continues to outperform as Federal Reserve expectations shift rate differentials in a more favourable direction. After a series of hotter-than-anticipated data releases and a concerted jawboning effort from policymakers, markets are now assigning sub-40-percent odds to a...

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