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CAD

11 Jun 2024

US CPI & Fed in focus

• Data & politics. European political concerns have weighed on the EUR. This & positive US jobs data at the end of last week have supported the USD.• US events. US CPI & Fed meeting in focus tonight. US core inflation forecast to slow & while the Fed should project few cuts this may already be priced in.• AUD cross-currents. European issues have boosted AUD/EUR. Positive US CPI signs & the Fed failing to exceed ‘hawkish’ expectations may help AUD. Economic and political developments in the US and Europe have shaken up markets over the past few sessions. The better-than-expected...

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11 Jun 2024

Safe Haven Demand Rises

The dollar is advancing for a fourth session and Treasury yields are coming under pressure as uncertainty surrounding European political upheaval intersects with broader concerns over US policy direction heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker session and risk-proxy currencies like the Canadian dollar are drifting lower. The British pound is trading with a weaker bias after a softer-than-expected labour report helped firm odds on an easing in monetary policy by the autumn. According to the Office for National Statistics, unemployment climbed to a two-and-a-half year high at...

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10 Jun 2024

Dollar Advances, Euro Retreats On Rising Political Risk

The dollar is holding near five-week highs this morning as Federal Reserve rate cut hopes continue to fade and renewed political uncertainty roils the euro area. Equity futures are setting up for a more subdued open, Treasury yields are down on safe-haven flows, and commodity prices are broadly lower. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report forced traders to push the expected initiation of the Fed’s easing cycle further into the future. Job growth surged, with a 272,000-position gain topping market expectations, and wage growth accelerated, rising 0.4 percent month-over-month. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in 36 basis points in easing by...

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07 Jun 2024

Jobs Numbers Beat Expectations, Lifting Yields

The US job creation engine sped up in May, further diminishing odds on a rate cut before the November election. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 272,000 jobs were added in the month, solidly overshooting the 175,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 15,000 positions. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, breaking a 28-month stretch below the 4 percent threshold, and wage gains accelerated, exacerbating...

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06 Jun 2024

Market Mood Brightens

Optimism is cool again. Investors are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s session saw a critical measure of services-sector sentiment top expectations, helping assuage recession fears and power equity indices to record levels. The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are steady, and several of the biggest US tech companies are sitting on market capitalisation gains bigger than most economies. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index clocked in at its highest level since last August, suggesting that the biggest sector in the US economy remains in rude health. The headline index hit 53.8 in early May, above the 50 threshold...

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