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CAD

21 May 2024

Data reinforcing central bank divergence

• Consolidation. US equities ticked up & based metals rose, while yields dipped despite ‘hawkish’ Fed rhetoric. USD & AUD tread water.• Divergence. Slower Canadian inflation bolstered BoC rate cut bets. Will today’s UK CPI do the same? Divergence with the RBA is AUD supportive.• RBNZ today. Rates expected to be held steady. Restrictive settings are working. Will the RBNZ tweak its forecast track to show earlier rate cuts? Another quiet night with limited net moves across the major markets. In contrast to the modest dip in European equities US stock markets ticked up again with the S&P500 (+0.3%) recording...

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21 May 2024

Canadian Inflation Falls Further, Bolstering June Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation decelerated again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut in June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in March, and closely aligned with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.5 percent. Shelter costs again provided the biggest lift, with rents climbing 8.2 percent year over year, while mortgage interest costs rose 24.5 percent....

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21 May 2024

Cautious Fed Messaging Puts Markets on the Defensive

The dollar is inching off a five week low after a slew of Federal Reserve officials repeated their “higher for longer” mantra in a series of appearances yesterday, forcing markets to push rate cut expectations a little farther out. The greenback weakened in recent weeks as a slew of softer-than-anticipated data releases pointed to slowing economic momentum, but gained slightly during yesterday’s session as Federal Open Market Committee members Bostic, Daly, Jefferson, and Mester all said they would need to see more evidence of cooling inflation before contemplating an easing in policy. Markets are back to pricing in a little...

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20 May 2024

Copper charging higher

• Quiet start. Limited moves across most markets. US equities firmer. Long-end bond yields a touch higher, as is the USD.• Commodities. Copper hit a record as strong demand comes up against constrained supply. There are cyclical & structural forces at play.• AUD swings. After its positive run AUD slipped back slightly. Policy divergence, rising commodity prices, & buoyant equities suggest the AUD is undervalued. As is usually the case, it was a relatively quiet start to the new week across global markets. No major economic data was released which could shift the dial. On the speaker front, there were...

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17 May 2024

Easing Wagers Pull Back Slightly as Wariness Returns

Not so fast. Currency markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders trim US rate-cut bets slightly from levels hit after Wednesday’s Goldilocks-esque inflation and retail sales reports. The greenback is inching up against its major counterparts, long-end Treasury yields are pushing higher, and North American equity futures are setting up for a slightly diminished open. But the dollar’s outperformance has faded in recent weeks. After a series of data releases showing labour markets slowing, consumer spending trending down, and inflation pressures subsiding, economists are revising growth projections lower. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s repeated reference to “restrictive” rate...

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