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CAD

30 Jul 2024

Currency Traders Keep Powder Dry Ahead of Looming Event Risks

So far, so good. A potentially-dangerous week in foreign exchange markets has started quietly, with most major currency pairs remaining tightly rangebound as traders brace for a raft of central bank decisions, data releases, and earnings reports over the coming days. The dollar is stable, Treasury yields are flatlining, and equity futures are setting up for a modestly stronger open. The Canadian dollar and other risk proxies are holding near Friday’s closing levels after the US Treasury Department’s latest borrowing estimate met market expectations, leaving bond yields flat during yesterday’s session, and reducing anxiety ahead of tomorrow’s quarterly refunding announcement....

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29 Jul 2024

Currency Markets Stabilise as Traders Brace for Heavy Week

Markets are holding steady ahead of a week full of potential volatility landmines: central bankers in Tokyo, Washington and London will deliver rate decisions, four of the ‘magnificent seven’ technology companies – Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft – will release earnings, the euro area will publish an inflation update, and a critical US non-farm payrolls report will cap things off before the August doldrums set in. The dollar is edging higher, Treasury yields are slumping, and equity futures are setting up for a second day of gains after last week’s steep stock market selloff. Investors remain unwilling to take short...

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26 Jul 2024

Fear Eases As US Economy Accelerates

A safe-haven bid in foreign exchange markets appears to be fading this morning, with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc losing altitude as downward pressure on risk-sensitive asset classes begins to ease. The dollar’s gains are slowing, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are setting up for a positive open after a paroxysm of selling saw major indices suffer their biggest losses in more than two years during Wednesday’s session. High-yielding currencies are climbing as carry trade flows hesitantly return, and risk proxies — like the Canadian and Australian dollars — are advancing on a generalised basis. Yesterday’s...

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25 Jul 2024

Equity Unwind Sparks Risk Retreat

Risk-sensitive currencies are staging a broad retreat as losses in stock markets continue. North American equity futures are pointing to a lower open after suffering the biggest selloff in two years during yesterday’s session, with a series of earnings misses intersecting with broader economic dynamics to trigger a headlong rush out of “megacap” names that have been the prime beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence craze. Safe-haven currencies are appreciating, front-end Treasury yields are inching lower, oil prices are down, and the broader commodity complex is coming under renewed selling pressure. The proximate trigger for the selloff isn’t entirely obvious, but...

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24 Jul 2024

Tech tumble

• Negative vibes. Large fall in US equities overnight. Copper fell further. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. BoC cut rates again & flagged more moves.• JPY swings. JPY revival continues. AUD/JPY dropped sharply from mid-July peak. This looks to be a factor behind the AUD’s broader underperformance.• Data flow. US Q2 GDP released tonight. US PCE deflator due tomorrow. Next week Q2 AU CPI, the US Fed meeting, & US jobs report will be in focus. The pull-back in equities stepped up a notch overnight, particularly in the US where a tech-sector led sell-off dragged on the overall...

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