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CAD

20 Jun 2024

Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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18 Jun 2024

Hawkish RBA vibes support the AUD

• Upbeat tone. Negative US economic news was good news for markets. Softer US retail sales weighed on bond yields which in turn boosted risk assets.• RBA meeting. No change in rates but the RBA’s tone was more ‘hawkish’. Inflation risks remain. We think RBA cuts still look some time away.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop has supported the AUD. AUD/EUR is at a multi-month high, while AUD/JPY is at levels last traded in 2013. The positive vibes continued overnight. Easing concerns about the upcoming French parliamentary elections was compounded by softer US retail sales. The underwhelming US economic news was...

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18 Jun 2024

RBA: No retreat, No surrender

No shock and awe from the RBA today, but its underlying tone did lean a little more ‘hawkish’. The cash rate was held steady at 4.35%, where it has been since last November, with the Board also reiterating it needs to “remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation” and that it “is not ruling anything in or out” when it comes to future moves. This is now a somewhat familiar mantra, and although the hurdle for another hike looks high the chances aren’t zero with the start of the RBA’s easing cycle appearing some time away. Getting consumer prices down...

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18 Jun 2024

Liquidity Dissipates Ahead of US Holiday

It’s a little weird out there this morning: Ahead of the North American open, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing to further gains after both indices hit record closing highs in yesterday’s session, and investors are positioning for a rebound in US retail sales volumes, along with an increase in uncertainty levels as a series of Federal Reserve officials make public appearances before tomorrow’s holiday market closure. Amid thin liquidity conditions, Treasury yields are inching higher, the dollar is advancing, and most major currency pairs are oscillating within narrow trading ranges as participants move to the sidelines....

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17 Jun 2024

European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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