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CAD

Risk Appetite Rises Ahead of US Inflation Print

Investors are struggling to restrain themselves ahead of consumer inflation data that is expected to help clear the way for a jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Treasury yields are sliding, equity indices are setting up for a positive open, and risk proxies like the Canadian dollar are advancing as market participants double down on a soft landing scenario in the US. The trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percentage point from Monday’s level after producer prices rose by less than forecast in July, pointing to a continued easing in underlying inflation pressures. The core producer...

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Markets Steady as Inflation Data Looms

Currency markets are back to treading water this morning, with the dollar remaining effectively unchanged against its major rivals as traders brace for another round of inflation prints. Treasury yields are creeping higher, equity futures are setting up for a positive open, and global oil benchmarks are flatlining even as an Iranian attack on Israel comes into closer prospect. The British pound is trading with a slightly firmer bias after the jobless rate fell unexpectedly, seemingly reducing the impetus for monetary easing from the Bank of England. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics earlier this morning,...

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Fragile Calm Returns

Fear levels are subsiding across financial markets after a week that shattered the typical August calm. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc are tumbling against a recovering dollar, Treasury yields are edging upward, equity futures are pushing higher ahead of the North American open, and measures of financial stress are reverting toward levels that prevailed ahead of the July non-farm payrolls report. Last week’s moves are now seen as an overreaction. After the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rebounded and weather-related distortions were removed in last week’s initial claims data, the consensus has shifted toward expecting a continued deceleration...

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Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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Global Selloff Intensifies

In an unusual turn of events, investors are suddenly acting as if bad news for the economy might also be bad news for financial markets. During yesterday’s session, evidence of rising unemployment and a deepening contraction in the US manufacturing sector helped compound the effects of a series of underwhelming earnings reports, triggering a plunge in major stock indices – and the selling looks set to continue at this morning’s open, as futures point to further losses. Air seems to be coming out of the artificial intelligence bubble. Updates from the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft this week...

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