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CAD

Australia’s inflation problem

Australia’s inflation genie is struggling to be put back in the bottle. The monthly CPI indicator for May was hotter than predicted. Headline inflation re-accelerated to 4%pa (from 3.6%pa in April), its fastest pace in 7-months with the 3-month and 6-month annualized run-rates also ticking higher. Positive base-effects were a factor but the detail under the hood would also be on the RBA’s radar given it has indicated limited tolerance for upside surprises. Notably, the disinflation across ‘goods’ prices looks to be stalling (‘goods’ inflation has held steady at 3.3%pa over the past few months, above its pre-COVID average). And...

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Canadian Inflation Tops Expectations, Lowering Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation unexpectedly accelerated last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada jumped – making a back-to-back rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting much less likely. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from the 2.7 percent increase recorded in April, and well above the 2.6-percent consensus expectation. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.6 percent. The print incorporated new consumer price index basket weights, but the statistical agency noted that the headline gain would...

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Rebalancing Flows Drive Mixed Currency Outcomes

Month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows are driving the dollar down against most of its major counterparts this morning, providing a modicum of relief across a range of asset classes. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are edging higher after tumbling yesterday on a rotation out of technology sector stocks, Treasury yields are up almost imperceptibly, and the commodity complex is experiencing a mild bout of mean reversion. The Mexican peso is grinding higher after carry traders piled back in during yesterday’s session, seizing on wide rate differentials and falling volatility expectations to drive the exchange rate to a circa-1.4-percent gain. Investors...

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Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week

Currency traders are on edge ahead of a series of event risks that could trigger renewed volatility in foreign exchange markets. The dollar is inching lower after last week brought confirmation of a weakening in retail sales, along with an unexpected increase in jobless claims during the June non-farm payrolls survey period. Recent data has shown clear evidence of slowing momentum in the US economy, but the greenback has continued to win the “cleanest dirty shirt” contest, emerging largely unscathed as other major currencies have come under selling pressure. Friday’s ‘triple witching’ session left the major equity indices unharmed, but...

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Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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