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CAD

02 Jul 2024

Dollar Steamroller Keeps Going

It’s not July 4th yet, but fireworks are going off in the financial markets. The dollar has risen sharply in line with a surge in Treasury yields over the last three sessions after a dismal performance from President Biden in Thursday’s televised debate triggered a dramatic reappraisal in the odds on a Republican sweep. With former president Trump cruising toward a second term and his party seen gaining control over both houses of Congress, markets think increased tariffs, reduced immigration, and lower taxes will lead to higher inflation, larger deficits, and more Treasury issuance. Breakeven inflation rates – a measure...

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28 Jun 2024

US Inflation Pressures Ease, Making Rate Cuts More Likely

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed as expected in May, bolstering odds on a rate cut before the November presidential election. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising just 0.1 percent in May from the prior month, matching market forecasts. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in April, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index flatlined relative to the prior month, rising 2.6 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.5 percent month-over-month,...

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28 Jun 2024

Markets Stabilise Ahead of Inflation Print

The dollar is slipping from a six-week high reached last night, ahead of US inflation data that is seen bolstering the case for lower interest rates. Equity futures are edging higher, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and currencies are back to trading in tight ranges as participants keep their powder dry. The latest in a series of market-moving political upsets came last night when President Biden turned in a disastrous performance in a televised debate, inviting questions from Democratic officials as to whether he should remain in the race. Struggling to counter a confident and falsehood-spewing Donald Trump, Biden’s weak...

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27 Jun 2024

Surging Dollar Squeezes Global Markets

Treasury yields are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is steamrolling its way past an eight-month high this morning as global borrowing costs rise and threaten economies outside the US. This morning’s jobless claims data could deliver further evidence of a cooling in US labour markets. Initial claims have remained low in recent months, but the number of people on longer-term benefits is clearly creeping higher, aligning with a generalised rise in the unemployment rate. According to recent data releases, job openings are now below long-term trends, hiring rates are coming down, the vacancy-to-unemployed worker ratio is back to 2019...

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26 Jun 2024

Dollar Keeps Winning Reverse Beauty Contest

Global bond yields are rising and the US dollar is trading on a firmer footing this morning after inflation surged unexpectedly in Canada and Australia, threatening to upend the rate cut consensus across developed markets and jeopardise growth outlooks. Australian price growth accelerated to its fastest in six months in May, knocking markets off balance and raising the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.0 percent in May, climbing from 3.6 percent in April and topping market forecasts that had been set at 3.8...

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