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CAD

20 Aug 2024

Dollar Selloff Resumes Ahead of Jackson Hole

A selloff in the dollar is intensifying this morning as investors grow more confident in a clear easing signal from Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium later this week. The greenback is holding near a three-week low, almost erasing its year-to-date gains, Treasury yields are ratcheting lower, equity indices are climbing, and volatility assumptions are coming down as a tide of optimism washes over global markets. The euro is trading near its highest levels this year as investors turn more cautious on the European Central Bank’s rate cutting path. Measures of underlying inflation slowed only...

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19 Aug 2024

Dollar Retraces Last Week’s Rebound on Easing Expectations

The case for an emergency-style half percentage-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting took a series of blows last week, helping boost Treasury yields and halt the dollar’s long slump. Inflation slowed in July, but exhibited no evidence of collapsing consumer demand. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell for a second consecutive week, suggesting that labour markets were not suffering the violent reversal feared only a few weeks earlier. And recession worries eased as headline retail sales accelerated by the most since last January. Jerome Powell is widely expected to telegraph a September rate cut in Friday’s appearance...

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15 Aug 2024

US recession risks continue to fade

• US data. Positive US jobless claims & retail sales data has further reduced recession fears. US equities jumped up, as did bond yields. USD firmer.• AUD outperformance. Another solid Australian jobs report helped the AUD hold its ground against the USD & strengthen on the crosses.• RBA speakers. Gov. Bullock & others testify to Parliament. Domestic conditions still suggest the RBA is on a slightly different path to its peers. A positive jolt across risk markets with a few more US data points reducing fears a recession is imminent. Initial jobless claims (the gauge of how many people are...

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15 Aug 2024

Volatility Subsides As Inflation Dust Settles

Price action is slowing in financial markets after yesterday’s US inflation report definitively cleared the way for a September rate cut, yet stopped short of justifying an unusually-large half-percentage-point move. Both the headline and core consumer-price indices rose at the slowest pace in three years in July, but shelter costs failed to match the prior month’s swift deceleration, putting the onus on forthcoming labour market data to determine whether a faster pace of easing is justified. The dollar is holding near an eight-month low, Treasury yields are little changed, and stock market futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open....

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14 Aug 2024

RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle

• Steady ship. US CPI largely as expected. Consolidation in markets. NZD underperformed. This also exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD.• RBNZ cut. RBNZ delivered a 25bp cut & flagged many more to come. Fundamentals between AU & NZ are diverging. This is AUD/NZD positive.• Data flow. Today, the volatile AU jobs report, China activity data, UK GDP, & US retail sales are due. A couple of US Fed members also speak tonight. The latest US CPI inflation report was in focus overnight, and the largely as anticipated results generated a rather benign response. The annual pace of...

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