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CAD

Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire Greenland and later sent a letter to foreign embassies linking the move to Norway’s refusal to award him the Nobel Peace Prize. US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday and liquidity conditions are thin, but the greenback is trading roughly a quarter-percent lower against a basket of its rivals, and the euro is climbing even as European leaders prepare a package of retaliatory measures. The...

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Swings & roundabouts

• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things pick up with China GDP (Mon), AU jobs (Thurs), PMIs (Fri), BoJ (Fri), & US PCE (Fri) due. Global Trends Geopolitical related headlines generated a few minor bursts of volatility across a couple of asset classes the last few days. However, as our chart below shows, cross-asset volatility remains below average with the headline noise not having a lasting impact. Indeed, this was the case once again with the latest...

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Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese yen becoming a key focal point ahead of a potential snap election. Equity futures are setting up for a negative open after modest losses in yesterday’s session, Treasury yields are holding firm across the curve, and the dollar is trading almost imperceptibly lower against a basket of its major counterparts. American consumers continued to engage in retail therapy in November. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning,...

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Tame inflation weighs on the dollar

Consumer price growth accelerated by slightly less than expected in the United States last month, helping lower short-term yields and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in December from the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent over the same period a year prior. This narrowly missed consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, and were up 2.7...

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Noise vs Signal

• Headline noise. Markets continue to take geopolitical/macro developments in stride. US equities rose overnight. AUD ticked higher.• US Fed. Investigation into Fed Chair Powell raises concerns about central bank independence. US CPI out tonight. US retail sales due later this week.• AU data. Household spending firmer than expected. AU jobs data (22 Jan) & Q4 CPI (28 Jan) important for RBA. A February rate hike is ~30% priced in. Global Trends A few geopolitical and economic crosscurrents such as developments in Venezuela and some US data have generated modest bursts of intermittent volatility over the past few weeks. But...

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