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CAD

Price action slows across financial markets as investors digest mixed signals

Financial markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders process the implications of an unexpectedly-divided Federal Reserve decision, news of a tentative trade truce between the US and China, and a mixed slate of earnings from the world’s largest technology firms. The dollar is maintaining yesterday’s advance, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.06 percent after posting their biggest one-day gain since July, shares in Meta and Microsoft are selling off ahead of the open after both companies said they were increasing spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and Alphabet is gaining after it reported a stronger-than-expected performance in its...

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Too hot to handle

• Fed gyrations. US Fed cut rates but Chair Powell pushed back on views it will go again in December. Higher US yields helped the USD intra-day.• AU CPI. Sizeable upside surprise in Q3 AU inflation. RBA expected to stay on hold. We think this should be AUD supportive over the medium-term.• Macro events. BoJ meets today. ECB holds court tonight. Also on the radar is a meeting between President’s Trump and Xi. Global Trends Ahead of today’s meeting between President’s Trump and Xi (from ~1pm AEDT) central banks were in focus overnight. Outside of bond yields there were relatively...

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Bank of Canada cuts, telegraphs an end to its easing cycle

The Bank of Canada delivered another rate cut this morning, as widely expected, but clearly signalled that policy rates are now near neutral—implying that further easing is unlikely in the absence of a material shift in economic conditions. Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent after cutting by the same amount in September. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers highlighted growth risks as the biggest motivating factor for the move, saying “The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces...

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‘Perfect storm’ boosts currencies and risk assets

A confluence of positive catalysts is lifting risk-sensitive currencies and asset prices this morning. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut and bring its quantitative-tightening programme to an end this afternoon. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is weighing a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, and market sentiment has been further buoyed by gains in the world’s most valuable company after Trump said he would discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell artificial-intelligence chips with Xi Jinping at their meeting tomorrow. Equity futures are climbing ahead of the open, ten-year Treasury yields are anchored below the...

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Australian inflation on the radar

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...

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