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CAD

Currencies Lose Momentum as Caution Sets In

The euro, pound, and yen are essentially flat against the dollar this morning as month end flows begin to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, with market participants generally inclined to cut leverage ahead of what could be an extremely dangerous September. Data releases continue to paint a mixed picture of fundamental developments in the US economy. Yesterday’s July durable goods report beat expectations on the headline level, but proved disappointing on closer examination. Overall orders climbed 9.9 percent from the prior month, but this was largely due to a jump in aircraft orders, which rose almost $23.4 billion after falling...

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Dollar Sends Out-of-Office Autoreply

The almighty greenback is making a lacklustre attempt at climbing off the mat after suffering the worst selloff in a year during Friday’s session, with rising geopolitical tensions doing little to reverse its losses. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar is up incrementally this morning, but has fallen roughly 3 percent this month, pacing declines in Treasury yields even after Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon generated a mild safe haven bid over the weekend. Oil prices are modestly higher, equity futures are seeing cautious inflows, and the pound, euro, and yen are turning in mixed performances amid holiday-thinned...

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The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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Markets Wait to Exhale

Global risk appetite is improving, but trading liquidity remains thin ahead of this morning’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The dollar is retreating, the pound and euro are inching higher, Treasury yields are flat, and equity futures are pointing to gains at the North American open. Odds on a half-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting have fallen sharply from the early-August peak, but markets nonetheless expect Powell to deliver a distinctly dovish outlook, setting the stage for at least one outsized move in the autumn months by emphasising downside...

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Trading Ranges Shrink As Jackson Hole Beckons

A sense of cautious optimism is settling over global markets this morning after payroll revisions and Federal Reserve minutes helped recalibrate expectations for the central bank’s policy actions this autumn. Trading ranges are narrowing across fixed-income, equity, and foreign exchange markets, with most major currency pairs moving sideways as participants avoid taking directional positions ahead of tomorrow’s appearance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said the number of jobs created in the year through March was significantly less than initially believed. Revisions subtracted 818,000 jobs from total payrolls over...

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