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CAD

18 Dec 2024

Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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17 Dec 2024

Commodity currencies under the pump

• Commodity FX. AUD, NZD, & CAD under pressure. AUD around levels last traded in November-2023. NZD touched a fresh ~2-year low.• Central banks. US Fed meets tomorrow, as does BoJ & BoE. Another Fed rate cut expected. Focus will be on its guidance & forecasts.• Already priced? Markets already factoring in fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. It could be hard for the Fed to be more ‘hawkish’ than what’s priced. Central bank meetings will be the focus over the next few sessions with the US Fed (Thurs 6am AEDT), Bank of Japan (Thurs, no set time), and Bank...

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17 Dec 2024

US Retail Sales Firm, Canadian Inflation Decelerates

US retail spending climbed slightly more than expected last month, suggesting that resilient consumer demand could continue to power economic outperformance through the all-important holiday season. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in November, beating the 0.6-percent consensus forecasts, and up from a revised 0.5 percent in October. So-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose by a softer 0.4 percent, matching estimates. The dollar is holding firm, ten-year Treasury...

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16 Dec 2024

Currency Traders Brace for Tumultuous Week

Foreign exchange markets are looking deeply rangebound this morning as 2024’s last full trading week kicks off. Most major currencies are trading within a quarter percentage point of Friday’s close, Treasury yields are stable, and North American equity markets are setting up for modest losses at the open. The euro is trading on a slightly softer footing after Moody’s Ratings cut France’s credit rating, warning that growing political dysfunction could endanger the country’s borrowing capacity. According to a statement released by the agency on Friday, “the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. This is because...

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12 Dec 2024

Macro trends support the USD

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...

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