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CAD

04 Oct 2024

Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom

Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing after the biggest weekly advance in six months, Treasury yields are steady, and North American equity futures are flat Uncertainty is high. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 150,000 jobs last month – a pace that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent – but forecasts are widely dispersed, from 70,000 on the low end to 225,000 on the high end. A surprise could radically reshape expectations for November’s Federal...

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03 Oct 2024

Dollar Keeps Climbing the ‘Wall of Worry’

The dollar is holding near a two-week high, boosted by safe haven demand and a diminishing sense of conviction in a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Oil prices are still grinding higher as investors await an expected Israeli retaliation for Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack, and risk appetite remains suppressed across the financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are sitting on circa-1.5-percent gains, North American equity markets are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is the only major currency sitting on gains for the last day. Incoming...

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02 Oct 2024

Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode

Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage to infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated, Treasuries are in demand, and the dollar is holding its gains after the attack triggered a flight to safety – but trading ranges are narrowing, and price action could easily reverse if the geopolitical escalatory cycle shows signs of slowing in the days ahead. The threat of a retaliatory attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could keep prices somewhat elevated, but the risk of a sustained...

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01 Oct 2024

Middle East tensions rock the boat

• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look to be tracking inline with fundamentals. Measures of volatility also not showing much stress.• NZD weaker. NZD fell, AUD/NZD rose. NZIER Survey showed price pressures are cooling fast raising the odds the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps. Geopolitics trumped economics overnight with escalating tensions in the Middle East generating a bout of risk aversion. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, a few hours after the US had...

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30 Sep 2024

US Fed remains data dependent

• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground in overnight trade after Chair Powell tempered expectations about outsized rate cuts.• Data driven. US Fed is data driven. Interest rate expectations & USD will be sensitive to whether US data is stronger or weaker than predicted. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the one hand the upswing in China’s equity market on the back of the stimulus push...

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