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CAD

06 Nov 2024

Trump Emerges Victorious, Sending Markets Reeling

Republican Donald Trump has defeated Democrat Kamala Harris to secure a second term as US president. His triumph, called just after 5:45 eastern time this morning by news outlets including the Associated Press, ABC, CNN, and the New York Times, could usher in a new wave of US protectionism, mark a shift toward an “America First” foreign policy stance, and end a period of relative calm in foreign exchange markets. Republicans also took majority control of the Senate, and look* set to retain the House of Representatives, handing Trump the power to enact a wide-ranging and radical policy agenda. He...

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05 Nov 2024

Markets Enter Risk-Aversion Mode Ahead of Election

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are inching higher, and equity indices are setting up for a positive open as the world’s worst reality show enters its final act. Elements of the ‘Trump trade’ are recovering after yesterday’s selloff, with many investors back to betting on the former president after the weekend’s polls suggested that markets were underestimating Kamala Harris’ electoral chances. There are other event risks to consider. The Bank of England is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday morning, with traders paying particular attention to how policymakers describe the impact of last week’s budget...

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04 Nov 2024

US election day

• Election jitters. A quiet start to the week with traders paring back some ‘Trump trades’. US equities eased & yields declined. USD a bit softer.• US politics. Polls & probability gauges suggest the result is a toss-up. Binary reaction to the outcome likely with volatility also on the horizon.• RBA today. No RBA policy changes expected. It may tweak its macro forecasts. We still think the start of its easing cycle is a story for H1 2025. It has been a relatively quiet start to the week with markets lasering in on the upcoming US Presidential Election. The narrower...

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04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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03 Nov 2024

US election odds swing again

• Market vol. US jobs data & election polls whipsawed markets. USD lost ground this morning (AUD higher) after election polls/odds narrowed.• US election. Voting progressively closes over Wednesday morning AEDT. Market reaction to the result could be binary. Volatility anticipated.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues) with the US Fed expected to cut rates (Fri AEDT). But this should be secondary to the US election. The sticker shock of a weaker than predicted US non-farm payrolls print and US election polls released over the weekend whipsawed markets on Friday night and this morning. On net, US equities increased (S&P500 +0.4%)...

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