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CAD

10 Dec 2024

RBA: Moving closer to rate cuts

As widely anticipated the RBA held interest rates steady at 4.35% once again at today’s meeting, the final one for 2024. This is where policy has been since November 2023. However, some adjustments to the RBA’s guidance do suggest the door to interest rate relief starting to be delivered in H1 2025 has opened a bit further. Prior rhetoric that the Board “is not ruling anything in or out” has been jettisoned, as was the comment that policy “will need to be sufficiently restrictive” until there is confidence inflation is heading sustainably towards target. Instead, the RBA notes that while...

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09 Dec 2024

China changes its policy tune

• China bounce. Policymakers in China changed their tone when it comes to policy. Prospect of more stimulus supported assets like the AUD.• RBA focus. No rate change expected from RBA. Will it alter its guidance? A tweak could see the AUD lose some ground.• Event radar. RBA today. Later this week, ECB & BoC meet. US CPI inflation also due, & the China CEWC will be held. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with moves that flowed in the wake of Friday nights US jobs data reversing. The catalyst...

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06 Dec 2024

Rising Unemployment Hits Both US and Canadian Dollars

The US job creation engine came back to life in November after October’s strike- and hurricane-related slowdown, but the rebound likely wasn’t strong enough to derail the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added in the month – topping the 220,000-consensus forecast – and October’s headline print was revised up to 36,000 from the 12,000 previously estimated. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, holding at the pace set in the prior month. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent however, adding to signs of broader labour market...

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04 Dec 2024

Markets Steady After South Korean Shock

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying the military on South Korean streets. The apparent autogolpe* attempt was quickly undone by lawmakers in an emergency vote – and the currency is now almost fully recovered – but markets have grown more uncertain about the future of...

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03 Dec 2024

Markets calm despite political turbulence

• Political news. Political developments in South Korea & ongoing issues in France dominated the international news flow the past 24hrs.• Calm markets. However, market spillovers were limited. European equities rose. USD held steady, as did AUD. NZD eased slightly.• AU growth. Q3 GDP released today. Partial data points to a pick up in activity. A ‘soft landing’ looks to be intact. RBA set to lag its global peers. News-wise there has been a lot going on but the geopolitical developments had limited spillover across markets overnight. In South Korea, after months of political deadlock President Yoon stunned the nation...

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