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CAD

01 Dec 2024

US jobs in the spotlight this week

• Positive tone. A solid end to November with US & European equities rising. Bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD edged a bit higher.• JPY revival. JPY rebound has weighed on USD/JPY & the USD. Narrowing yield spreads as the BoJ hikes & others cut rates is JPY supportive.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales out today & GDP is on Weds. US Fed Chair Powell speaks this week & the latest US jobs figures are due. Markets ended last week, and November, on a positive note. In the holiday shortened US session equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching another...

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29 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens, Canadian Growth Remains Lacklustre

Amid turbulent month-end flows and a serious tryptophan hangover, the dollar is retreating and volatility expectations are falling as investors bet that Donald Trump’s trade bite won’t match his bark. The greenback looks headed toward its biggest weekly loss in three months after several relatively-moderate cabinet picks – most notably Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary – helped assuage market fears of a more extremist policy mix in the president’s second term, lowering long-term yields and reducing the risk discount embedded in other major currencies. Equity futures are pointing toward further gains in today’s holiday-shortened session, the ten-year Treasury yield is...

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28 Nov 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone equities rose & yields dipped. USD tread water.• AUD holding. AUD little changed. RBA Governor Bullock spoke & noted that “underlying” inflation is too high to consider a near-term rate cut.• Data flow. EZ CPI due tonight. China PMIs tomorrow. Next week AU GDP is released, Fed Chair Powell speaks, & the US jobs report is out. With the US closed for the Thanksgiving holiday it was a quiet night on markets. Across in Europe, equities rose with the EuroStoxx600 ~0.5% higher, while bond yields declined. Bond yields...

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27 Nov 2024

Fundamentals vs flows

• Softer USD. A firmer EUR, stronger JPY, & month-end portfolio rebalancing flows exerted a bit of downward pressure on the USD.• AUD & NZD. AUD ticked up & NZD rose despite RBNZ delivering a 50bp cut & indicating more to come. AUD/NZD below model estimates.• Holiday markets. US markets closed for Thanksgiving tonight & only open for a few hours on Friday. Thinner liquidity may generate bursts of intra-day vol. Mixed fortunes across markets over the past 24hrs with the economic data and central bank comments butting up against month-end portfolio rebalancing ahead of the US Thanksgiving holidays. US...

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27 Nov 2024

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. The dollar is inching lower amid month-end flows, Treasury yields are down, equity futures are slipping, and oil prices are weakening after Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire agreement late yesterday, reducing the likelihood of a widening conflict that could pull in other regional powers. Unease over the extent to which protectionist policies might be deployed by the US remains elevated after the president-elect tapped Robert Lighthizer’s former chief of staff to lead trade...

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