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CAD

28 Jun 2023

Signs of US resilience lift dollar

The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are pushing higher after yesterday’s raft of second-tier data releases pointed to continued outperformance in the US economy relative to its rivals.  Durable goods orders topped expectations in May, posting a 1.7 percent gain against a forecast -0.9 percent decline. New home sales jumped 12.2 percent, well above the predicted 1.2-percent gain. And consumer confidence surged, smashing market forecasts and suggesting that cooling inflation is intersecting with strong labour markets to bolster optimism about the economy’s direction. The Conference Board’s index jumped to 109.7, beating consensus estimates that were set closer to 102. An...

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27 Jun 2023

Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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27 Jun 2023

Canadian dollar falls as inflation slows

Canadian inflation decelerated in May, and most underlying price indicators continued to soften, helping push the Bank of Canada back onto a data-dependent footing. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, down sharply from the 4,4 percent increase recorded in April, and perfectly in line with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the change climbed to 0.4 percent – again aligning with market forecasts. Base-year effects saw gasoline prices fall -18.3 percent year-over-year, and the energy sub-index also dropped 12.4 percent. Food prices slowed their climb, up 9...

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26 Jun 2023

Weekly Update

The direction and magnitude of changes in euro area core producer price indices have tended to lead the core consumer price index by 6 to 9 months. A sharp easing in price pressures looks likely in coming months. Euro area inflation is (probably) headed down. Price indices, % annual change Inflation pressures – as measured using the New York Fed’s “Underlying Inflation Gauge” are trending solidly downward, suggesting that relief could come in the next few months, even if May’s data remains elevated. US inflation could come down even faster. Personal Consumption Expenditures indices and Underlying Inflation Gauges, % annual...

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26 Jun 2023

Veni, Vidi, Retreat-y

This weekend’s baffling march on Moscow by the Wagner Group of mercenaries ended without any appreciable impact on global energy prices or broader financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged, equity futures look incrementally softer, and the VIX “fear index” is holding near Friday’s post-pandemic lows. The yen is modestly stronger after Japanese officials stepped up currency jawboning efforts last night, with Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, warning that exchange rate moves had become “one-sided” and that he wouldn’t “rule out any options” in dealing with it – language that has...

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