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CAD

04 Feb 2025

Will the rebound in sentiment last?

• Positive vibes. Yesterday’s news tariffs on Mexico & Canada have been delayed boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD. But will it last?• Tariff risks. China announced countermeasures. Risk of the US imposing tariffs on EU remains. More headline-driven volatility likely over period ahead.• AUD & NZD. AUD bounced above its 1-month average. NZD also rebounded, but higher NZ unemployment reinforces RBNZ rate cut expectations. Global Trends Yesterdays news that the proposed US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed by a month improved the market mood. Indeed, even news out of China that it will impose...

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04 Feb 2025

Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

A sense of normalcy is returning to financial markets this morning after Donald Trump backed off threats against Canada and Mexico, granting the countries a 30-day reprieve from his proposed 25-percent tariffs. The dollar is retreating amid sluggish price action in currency markets, ten-year yields are down as inflation expectations recede, and equity markets are setting up for a soft open. Measures of implied volatility are coming off their highs, but remain elevated relative to recent history. The stay of execution was achieved after leaders in each country agreed to bolster border security in telephone calls with Trump. Bafflingly, the...

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03 Feb 2025

Headline driven markets

• Tariff news. Tariff-related risk aversion & the stronger USD unwound overnight. News tariffs on Mexico & Canada will be delayed boosted sentiment.• FX swings. After falling sharply AUD & NZD are back around where they ended last week. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated.• Data flow. In the US, JOLTS job openings due tonight. In NZ, Q4 jobs report is out tomorrow. But this can be overshadowed by tariff news. Global Trends The fallout from the US announcing trade tariffs on three of its largest trading partners (Canada, Mexico, China) rattled nerves and sent markets into a tailspin...

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03 Feb 2025

Trade Shock Roils Global Markets

The dollar is climbing, yields are rising and equity markets are setting up for sharp losses at the open after US President Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in what could quickly devolve into a global trade war. The administration said Saturday it will levy 25 percent import taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico—with Canadian “energy resources” subjected to a lower 10 percent levy—along with an extra 10 percent tariff on imports from China. If implemented immediately and sustained, this would represent the biggest increase in duties since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930—often blamed for deepening the Great...

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02 Feb 2025

Shots fired in the trade war

• Tariff news. US announced tariffs against Canada, Mexico, & China. This had been in the pipeline for a while. Canada also unveiled retaliatory action.• USD stronger. The news has boosted the USD this morning. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. Uncertainty & macro headwinds are usually USD supportive.• Event Radar. Tariff news will be in the drivers seat. Data-wise, jobs reports are out in NZ, Canada & the US this week. Several US Fed members also speak. Global Trends After much talk the first actual shots were fired in the US led Trump 2.0 trade war over the weekend....

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