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Market Briefing: Markets rally back on China reopening hopes

With protests losing steam and Chinese authorities making comforting noises about a relaxation in “zero-covid” policies, yesterday’s flight to safety is beginning to unwind. Treasury yields are softening and the dollar is down as investors tiptoe back into risk assets. Commodities are staging a solid rebound, the Canadian dollar is ticking higher, and the Antipodean units are recovering in a snappish manner. Markets think China’s social unrest has made an immediate reversal in official policy less likely – authorities are loath to acknowledge signs of dissent – but will serve to accelerate the government’s vaccination efforts for the elderly population,...

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Market Briefing: China unrest rocks global markets

Markets are in risk-off mode this morning as protests against China’s “zero-covid” policies boil over and raise uncertainty in the world’s second-largest economy. Treasury yields are slumping as investors seek safety and speculators unwind leveraged positions, and the dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing. The bravery of people confronting a regime with unsurpassed control over its citizens has been inspiring and astonishing, but Beijing’s long history of stamping out dissent would suggest that the current bout of unrest will be short-lived, with limited implications for the broader global economy. Xi Jinping is unlikely to hand protestors a symbolic...

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Market Briefing: Greenback fades against thinning liquidity backdrop

The dollar is trading on a softer footing against most of its major counterparts after several Federal Reserve officials helped solidify market expectations for a smaller, half-percentage point hike at the December meeting. In separate comments yesterday, San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said “I think we can slow down from the 75 at the next meeting” and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester stressed the need to be “mindful” of the risks involved in tightening too much. Oil prices are holding steady after yesterday’s whiplash-inducing session. Front-month West Texas Intermediate plunged by more than $5 a barrel when the Wall Street Journal claimed...

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Market Briefing: Risk appetite improves as Fed jawboning efforts help stabilize rate expectations

The dollar is slipping and risk sensitive exchange rates are recovering this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed officials. Mr. Bullard, notoriously hawkish, but not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee next year, said rates might have to climb above 5.25 percent as previous increases have “had only limited effects on observed inflation”. Neel Kashkari – once one of the most dovish Fed policymakers – walked a similar path later in the day, saying “we cannot be overly persuaded by one month’s data”, helping to push back against the wholesale loosening in...

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Market Wire: Strong North American data releases restrain hopes for monetary policy easing

Canadian inflation stabilized last month, keeping monetary policy expectations largely unchanged. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October, with the month-over-month change hitting 0.6 percent – narrowly missing consensus economic forecasts for a 0.7 percent gain. Gasoline prices leapt 9.2 percent higher month-over-month, partially reflecting a rebound in global oil benchmarks. Food price gains decelerated, but kept climbing, up 0.4 percent on the month, after rising 1.2 percent in September. Shelter costs renewed their ascent, up 0.8 percent month-over-month as higher interest rates took their toll....

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