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CAD

Market Wire: Canadian Inflation Decelerates, Weighing on Rate Expectations

Core inflation, computed as the average of the three price measures preferred by the Bank of Canada (trim, median, and common), increased an annualized 5.23 percent – close to the 5.3 percent expected in markets, and down from July’s revised 5.43 percent as costs rose across a broad range of economic sectors. Core measures strip out highly-volatile categories, and are often used to develop a better understanding of price pressures in the underlying economy. As expected, shelter cost growth continued to slow, up 6.6 percent year-over-year, but down from 7 percent in the prior month as home prices slumped. Gasoline...

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Market Briefing: Markets Trapped In Doldrums Ahead of Fed

Currency market trading ranges have gone flat ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, but the dollar remains well-bid in a global environment dominated by tightening financial conditions. Equity futures are slumping after the US 10-year hit its highest levels in more than a decade earlier this morning, briefly climbing above 3.545 percent. The world’s most powerful central bank is expected to deliver a 75 basis point hike. Markets are assigning less-than-20-percent odds to a 100 basis point increase, especially after the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos yesterday published an article giving short shrift to a larger move. Mr. Timiraos helped...

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Market Briefing: Worsening Risk Appetite Pummels Global Currency Markets

With real yields storming higher, the dollar is extending its rally this morning, sending the pound, euro and yen tumbling toward multi-decade lows. Global financial conditions are tightening and traders are bailing out of risk-sensitive assets ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver 75 basis-point hike and guide terminal rate expectations firmly above the 4.25 percent mark. The British pound is plumbing levels last seen in 1985 after a weak retail sales report exacerbated fears of a deep and prolonged recession. The Office for National Statistics said receipts dropped 1.6 percent between July and...

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Market Briefing: Tightening Financial Conditions Induce Caution In Currency Markets

Pondering the unbearable weight of massive rate increases, market participants are downgrading economic growth prospects this morning, lifting the dollar and sending the yield curve deeper into inverted territory. Short-term curves are flattening and the difference between 2- and 30-year Treasury rates — often seen as a measure of long-term growth expectations — has reached levels not seen since 2000 as Tuesday’s inflation data drives investors to ramp up bets on a policy-induced slowdown. American producers cut prices again in August, suggesting that consumer inflation could drop in the months ahead. The producer-price index, released yesterday by the Bureau of...

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Market Briefing: Shellshocked Currency Markets Attempt a Recovery

Investors and foreign exchange traders are trying to recover after getting resoundingly wrong-footed by yesterday’s US consumer price report. The dollar is slipping against many of its major rivals and equity futures are pointing to a slightly stronger open as positioning errors are unwound and liquidity levels return to normal. Markets plummeted yesterday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said price increases were faster and more persistent than anticipated in August, crushing the “peak inflation” narrative, and spurring a violent jump in short-term interest rates. The dollar surged higher, clobbering global equity bourses and rival currencies alike as terminal rate...

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