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CAD

25 Jun 2025

USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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24 Jun 2025

Fragile Middle Eastern Truce Boosts Risk Assets

Oil prices are down dramatically, shares are gaining, and the dollar is retreating on signs that the latest round of hostilities in the Middle East is drawing to a close. A truce between Israel and Iran, announced by US President Donald Trump late last night, was temporarily interrupted by accusations of missile launches from both sides, but now appears to be holding. Crude benchmarks plunged earlier in yesterday’s session when Tehran launched a well-telegraphed missile attack on US assets in Qatar, avoiding an escalation that might have led to a disruption in global energy supplies. Treasury yields tumbled yesterday when...

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23 Jun 2025

Markets Shrug Off US Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

The weekend’s US bombing raids on Iran left measures of global risk appetite essentially unchanged, suggesting that traders expect Tehran to respond in a limited fashion. Both the Brent international crude benchmark and the North American West Texas Intermediate grade are ratcheting lower, with front-month prices slipping to $77 per barrel and $73 respectively after briefly hitting five-month highs in overnight trading. Treasury yields are holding steady, North American equity futures are pointing to a solidly-positive open, and the dollar is trading only modestly higher against a basket of its major counterparts. Headline risks remain substantial, but we think a...

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22 Jun 2025

Hammer blow

• Middle East. Weekend developments with the US entering the fray have dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer this morning. AUD on backfoot.• Fluid situation. How Iran responds will be in focus. Will it look to disrupt global oil flows? More market volatility anticipated over the period ahead.• Event Radar. Data wise AU CPI indicator due this week. Global PMIs are out today. Fed Chair Powell speaks & US PCE deflator is released. Global Trends Market wise there isn’t a lot to say about what happened on Friday night with US equities drifting back (S&P500 -0.2%), bond yields a touch...

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18 Jun 2025

Holding on

• Holding on. Consolidation in markets with US equities & bond yields little changed. Lower vol. helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• US Fed. Policymakers still projecting two cuts in late-2025. But fewer reductions are anticipated in 2026 because of tariff-related inflation risks.• AU jobs. Monthly Australian employment figures out today. After a strong result in April will the volatile series show some payback in May? Global Trends Following the zigzag moves over the past few days on the back of evolving Middle East news markets consolidated overnight ahead of the US public holiday. The S&P500 was range-bound as were...

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