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CAD

23 May 2023

Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1 The Treasury is running out of cash. Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD Exhibit 2 Market distortions are emerging. May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, % Exhibit 3 UK prices are set to roll over. Annual change in consumer price indices, % Exhibit 4 The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed. Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020 Exhibit 5 Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro. Citi Economic Surprise Indices Exhibit 6 And gains are starting to unwind. Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from...

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23 May 2023

Markets count down to debt ceiling deal

Markets are stuck in a state of suspended animation after President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy emerged from last night’s talks without a deal to raise the US debt ceiling. According to Biden, the two leaders agreed that a “default is off the table,” and McCarthy said “The tone tonight was better than any other time we have had discussions”. McCarthy called the talks “productive” but said “we don’t have an agreement yet,” with both noting that differences over tax changes were lengthening the standoff. An earlier statement from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we estimate that it is highly likely...

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17 May 2023

Dollar steamrolls higher on pullback in rate cut bets

The dollar is climbing this morning, ostensibly benefitting from safe haven flows as the political theatre surrounding the debt ceiling negotiations reaches a higher pitch. But with President Biden poised to return early from the G7 summit in Japan and House Speaker McCarthy saying “It is possible to get a deal by the end of the week. It’s not that difficult to get to an agreement,” we suspect other forces are in play. Yesterday’s retail sales report – which showed underlying US consumer demand remaining surprisingly robust for a third consecutive month – may be triggering a broader rethink on the...

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16 May 2023

US retail spending and Canadian inflation data point to stubbornly-robust demand

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but consumer demand remained strong, keeping recessionary fears at bay and helping support yields across the front end of the curve.  According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in April, up 0.2 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.8 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -0.8 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.4 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.6 percent, and...

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16 May 2023

Trading ranges shrink ahead of action-packed day

Currency markets are seeing subdued price action this morning as participants stay sidelined in a catalyst-poor environment. Both the euro and pound are holding modest gains and the dollar is slightly weaker, with three-month implied volatility levels trading near the lowest levels in a year as monetary policy expectations crystallize and movement in the fixed income space slows to a crawl. Commodity-linked and Antipodean currencies are weaker after traders responded to softer-than-expected Chinese economic activity data by marking down demand forecasts. Last night’s official data showed industrial output in the world’s second largest economy expanding 5.6 percent in April from a year...

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