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CAD

Sentiment Improves as Fed Rhetoric Remains Balanced

The dollar is softer and Treasury yields are subsiding after the chair of the Federal Reserve avoided walking back last week’s observation that signs of “disinflation” were beginning to appear – something that many saw as a communications error at the time.  Jerome Powell essentially repeated last week’s message in a question and answer session at the Economic Club in Washington yesterday. Speaking with David Rubenstein, Powell noted that Friday’s jobs data was “certainly strong – stronger than anyone I know expected,” warning that the process involved in getting inflation down to target would be “bumpy”. “The reality is we’re...

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Trend Reversal Rumbles Across Currency Markets

The dollar is continuing its ascent and global markets are in risk-off mode as traders unwind bets on easier monetary policy in the aftermath of Friday’s juggernaut jobs report. Futures are down sharply, Treasury yields are up, the greenback is trading near a three week high, and currencies elsewhere are on the defensive after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 517,000 jobs to payrolls in January, while revising previous months up. Friday’s data looks too good to be true, with seasonal adjustment issues likely playing a role – but it nonetheless showed that underlying momentum in the...

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Risk Appetite Improves as Markets Ignore Signs of Slowing Economic Momentum

Hopes for a soft landing in the US economy are slowly fading, but strong corporate earnings are keeping asset prices elevated for now. North American equity futures are pointing to a modestly stronger open after a series of better-than-expected earnings releases, and the trade-weighted greenback is up slightly as flows into US markets offset concerns about the longer-term outlook. We’re reminded of the old joke about the optimist who jumped off the Empire State Building – as he was falling, someone asked, “How’s it going?”, and he responded:“So far, so good!” Yields on both sides of the 49th Parallel remain...

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Bank of Canada Raises Rates, Explicitly Signals Pause Ahead

In what could become its last move in this tightening cycle, the Bank of Canada lifted its benchmark overnight rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.50 percent this morning, while clearly setting the stage for a conditional pause at coming meetings. In the statement accompanying the decision, the central bank said “The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR (Monetary Policy Report) outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of...

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Trading Remains Subdued as News Flow Slows to a Trickle

Foreign exchange markets are seemingly weighed down by a heavy blanket of snow this morning, with trading ranges remaining remarkably tight ahead of next week’s central bank meetings. The greenback is up microscopically, and the Australian dollar is the only major with material gains, having risen sharply after the latest inflation numbers surprised to the upside. Equity futures are tumbling ahead of the North American open, with weak earnings guidance from Microsoft helping to keep overall risk sentiment restrained. The euro remains well-supported after the latest purchasing manager survey data suggested that economic fortunes are set to diverge on either...

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