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CAD

20 Jun 2023

Risk assets pause for breath as Fed pushback becomes more likely

Markets are turning more cautious after last week’s “melt-up” in risk assets, with the dollar climbing against its rivals, Treasury yields ticking higher, and equity markets beating a slow retreat. The British pound is holding near to a ten-month high against the euro and a 14-month peak against the dollar, supported by rising rate expectations. Following strong labour market and wage growth data, the latest inflation print, out tomorrow morning, is expected to show headline price growth easing only slightly in the the month of May, and the core measure is seen holding close to 6.8 percent in year-over-year terms. In response,...

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15 Jun 2023

Another hawkish ECB hike

• Weaker USD. ECB delivered another hawkish hike. Policy divergence between the ECB & US Fed has boosted the EUR & weighed on the USD.• AUD stronger. Compounding the softer USD was another strong local labour market report & expectations China could announce stimulus to boost growth.• BoJ today. No changes expected. But tweaks appear inevitable. JPY is at quite low levels. We think there are more upside than downside risks from here. US and European markets diverged overnight, with contrasting central bank expectations a driver. European equities eased back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose after the ECB delivered...

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14 Jun 2023

Risk appetites improve as Fed meeting looms

Risk-sensitive currencies are on the march and the dollar is retreating after US inflation cooled in May, reducing the impetus for tighter monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said headline prices climbed 4 percent in the year through May, down sharply from 4.9 percent in April and well below the 9.1-percent peak reached last June. The so-called “supercore” measure – which excludes highly-volatile food, energy, goods, and housing prices – climbed just 0.24 percent month over month, broadly in line with long-term pre-pandemic averages. Markets are firmly positioned for a “hawkish hold” in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting....

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13 Jun 2023

On-consensus inflation print puts Fed on course toward rate “skip”

US consumer inflation slowed as expected last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to skip a rate hike at tomorrow’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4 percent in May from the same period last year, up 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 4.1 percent and 0.1 percent consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. With gasoline prices tumbling, energy costs slid 3.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index inched 0.2 percent higher. New vehicle prices fell -0.2...

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12 Jun 2023

Trading Ranges Compress Ahead of Decisive Week

Currency traders are battening the hatches ahead of a week in which the world’s three most powerful central banks will deliver rate decisions and a series of critical data updates will be published, potentially shaping the monetary policy outlook.  Economists think tomorrow’s data will show US headline inflation slowing to 4.1 percent year-over-year in May, down from 4.9 percent in the prior month as gas prices continue their decline.Underlying consumer prices should also cool, with ebbing goods demand and an easing in rental costs driving the month-over-month change in the core measure down to 0.3 percent from April’s 0.4 percent. After a...

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