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CAD

17 Oct 2023

Divergent North American Data Supports Greenback

US retail spending rose by more than expected last month, keeping the US exceptionalism trade intact and helping support yields across the front end of the curve. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in September after an upwardly-revised 0.8-percent gain in August, up 3.4 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.3 percent headline gain. Gas station sales climbed 0.9 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 1 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations...

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17 Oct 2023

Markets soften ahead of key data releases

Risk appetites are on the wane in financial markets once again this morning, with a raft of critical data releases looming even as geopolitical tensions simmer in the background. Treasury yields are edging higher, with the ten-year pushing back through 4.75 percent, equity futures oriented toward a slightly softer open, and Brent prices holding above the $90 mark. The dollar is still showing signs of strength relative to the euro and yen, but gains have slowed relative to the pace set last week. Investors are still processing the implications of President Biden’s freshly-announced trip to Israel, in which he is...

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16 Oct 2023

Glasses Half Empty

Mashing this morning’s Bank of Canada third-quarter Survey of Consumer Expectations and Business Outlook Survey together, it’s clear that businesses and households and businesses are aware – perhaps more than markets – of the lagged effects of monetary tightening. Both consumers and businesses are relatively optimistic on employment conditions in the years ahead, but seem resigned to elevated levels of inflation, and most think the adverse impact of central bank monetary tightening has yet to hit the economy. This runs contrary to consensus forecasts, which are – broadly speaking – set for a “soft landing”, but it wouldn’t be entirely...

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16 Oct 2023

Jaw-jaw helps offset war-war

Good morning and happy Monday. Four major forces are acting on currency markets ahead of the North American open: Last week’s flight to safety is losing momentum as world leaders make a concerted push to minimize spillover risks ahead of an expected Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Both major oil benchmarks are giving back some of Friday’s gains, Treasury yields are renewing their push higher and equity futures are pointing to a softer open after US president Joe Biden said he supported efforts to eliminate the terrorists who attacked Israel, while noting that “Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas...

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13 Oct 2023

Soaring yields support greenback, but move shows signs of exhaustion

Happy Friday. We see four key factors driving currency markets this morning: Safe haven assets are catching a bid as the conflict in the Middle East worsens, threatening to involve other regional powers. With Israel preparing for a ground offensive in Gaza and refugee flows into other counties set to increase, fears of wider disruption – which could lead to tighter sanctions on Iranian crude and ultimately slow flows through the Strait of Hormuz – are growing. Equity futures are pointing to a softer open, the euro and pound are sliding against the yen, Swiss franc, and dollar, and oil-linked...

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