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Yield differentials could narrow – and even flip.

Many things could go right for the Canadian economy in the months ahead. Housing markets have the potential to go from strength to strength as immigration flows lift demand and elevated financing rates limit the supply response from builders and existing homeowners. High and stable equity market valuations may support household wealth effects. Aggregate nominal household incomes might keep rising as persistent labour market imbalances put upward pressure on wages. And exports could hold up, particularly if the US consumption engine keeps running and a comprehensive stimulus effort from Chinese policymakers supports global commodity demand.

The Bank of Canada – which already sounds more confident than many of its global counterparts – could cut rates more gradually than the Federal Reserve in 2024, contributing to a narrowing in relative rate differentials and providing additional support to the currency.

US government bond yield minus Canadian government bond yield, %

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Twists & turns

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