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CAD

10 Jul 2023

Price action slows ahead of US inflation and Canadian policy decision

Markets seem to be tiptoeing into a data-light week with a sense of trepidation.Equity futures are weaker, Treasury yields are ticking lower, and benchmark dollar indices are pushing higher ahead of the opening bell, suggesting that risk appetites remain relatively constrained after Friday’s big moves. The euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are all sitting in defensive positions, with technical indicators pointing to rangebound price action ahead. Inflation flat-lined in China last month, and a sharp decline in producer prices suggested that the world’s biggest manufacturer is beginning to export deflation. Headline consumer prices were unchanged in June relative to a year earlier, and...

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06 Jul 2023

Unsurprising Fed minutes push yields higher

Odds on another rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were left slightly higher yesterday after a record of June’s discussion showed officials were modestly more hawkish than expected. Staff forecasts pointed to a deceleration in growth and price pressures through the latter half of the year, and there was considerable uncertainty about where the cumulative effects of previous tightening efforts would appear, but “almost all” agreed that rates would need to climb further this year – and some favoured moving more quickly because “momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated and there were few clear signs that...

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05 Jul 2023

Markets retreat as fireworks fade

Financial markets are suffering a modest post-July 4 hangover, with the big risk haven currencies – the dollar, euro, and yen – outperforming their commodity-linked brethren ahead of the North American open.  Risk appetite is broadly weaker after China’s Caixin services sector purchasing manager index fell by more than expected in May, providing more evidence of a softening in consumer sentiment in the world’s second-largest national economy. The index dropped to 53.9 from 57.1 in April, missing forecasts that were set above the 56 threshold, and aligning with similar results from the official services and manufacturing surveys last week. The yuan...

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30 Jun 2023

Slowing consumer demand weighs on US yields, forces dollar into incremental retreat

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed and consumer spending flatlined in May, suggesting that the central bank’s monetary tightening efforts are beginning to take a toll on the economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in May from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates for a 4.7-percent print. The so-called “supercore” measure – services inflation excluding housing and energy services – favoured by Jerome Powell rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, rising at the...

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28 Jun 2023

Signs of US resilience lift dollar

The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are pushing higher after yesterday’s raft of second-tier data releases pointed to continued outperformance in the US economy relative to its rivals.  Durable goods orders topped expectations in May, posting a 1.7 percent gain against a forecast -0.9 percent decline. New home sales jumped 12.2 percent, well above the predicted 1.2-percent gain. And consumer confidence surged, smashing market forecasts and suggesting that cooling inflation is intersecting with strong labour markets to bolster optimism about the economy’s direction. The Conference Board’s index jumped to 109.7, beating consensus estimates that were set closer to 102. An...

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