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CAD

07 Nov 2023

Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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06 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Labour market slack is shrinking. Fed expectations have fallen sharply. Bank of Canada projections have dropped more significantly. But economic surprise gaps are still very wide. Underlying growth signals are surprisingly stable. And rate differentials remain dollar-supportive. US economic policy uncertainty has fallen to record lows… huh?

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06 Nov 2023

All together now

With incoming economic data softening across North America, market projections for central bank policy paths have shifted significantly in the last few weeks. In contrast with implied market pricing on October 18 – when the Federal Reserve was seen delivering at least one, maybe two cuts by November 2024, even as the Bank of Canada was expected to keep rates on hold – the US is now seen slashing rates at least three times, while Canada is expected to cut at least twice. To us, this has reduced mispricing embedded in dollar-Canada rate differentials, and has temporarily reduced downside risks...

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03 Nov 2023

North American job creation engines slow, weighing on yields

The US labour market slowed sharply in October, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold through the early part of next year. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, just 150,000 jobs were added, down from a revised 297,000 in September, and the unemployment rate crept higher to 3.9 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, modestly below expectations. Ahead of the release, “whisper number” estimates had forecast a 200,000-job gain and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar is weakening, equity futures are pushing higher,...

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03 Nov 2023

Directional momentum slows into US payrolls report

Happy non-farm payrolls day, to all who celebrate. Ahead of the most important release on the monthly economic calendar, markets are working to demolish the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” narrative. Investors, apparently comforted by Jerome Powell’s words during Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference, have dramatically lowered odds on another interest rate hike in the coming months, and have moved to add two rate cuts to 2024 – in addition to the two already priced in. After breaking above 5 percent for the first time since 2007 last week, ten-year Treasury yields have lost almost 35 basis points, marking one of...

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