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CAD

06 Sep 2023

Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges easing in “excess demand”

10:45 EDT To sum up and close out today’s Bank of Canada action: – Markets are mostly convinced the Bank’s tightening cycle is done, and are now mainly concerned with adjusting bets on when the first rate cut might occur. Odds on a cut by January are creeping higher, but the consensus is anchored closer to mid-2024. – But policymakers cannot declare “mission accomplished” yet, and will need to maintain a rhetorically hawkish posture until the threat of an unwarranted easing in financial conditions has passed. – Two inflation reports, two jobs prints, a business outlook survey, and a number...

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06 Sep 2023

Dollar steamrolls global markets

The almighty greenback is holding near its highest levels since March this morning as rising oil prices and slower disinflation fears force Treasury yields upward. The major North American equity bourses are under pressure and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds.  Half-hearted defence efforts from policymakers are doing little to reverse the tide. The euro is up just 0.2 percent after European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned markets could be “underestimating” the likelihood of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, and his colleague Peter Kazimir said he would prefer to “deliver another 25 basis points” and...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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05 Sep 2023

Lowered expectations

As a long-ago MadTV skit illustrated, lowered expectations can be the key to happiness – in dating, and in life. Something similar applies in the currency markets, where – to paraphrase the behavioural investing expert Michael Mauboussin – traders need to assess the level of expected performance embedded in exchange rates and then assess the likelihood of a revision in expectations. If expectations seem poorly aligned with future results, volatility is likely ahead. Our turnover-weighted measure of economic surprise indices, which represents the gap between consensus forecasts and official data across the major currencies relative to the United States, suggests...

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05 Sep 2023

Risk appetite fades on China slowdown fears

The US dollar is stronger against all its major counterparts this morning, building on August’s 1.7-percent gain as weak Chinese data weighs on global risk appetite. US equity futures are setting up for a modestly-weaker open and Treasury yields are up across the curve, helping keep the trade-weighted greenback near six-month highs. Global commodity prices are under pressure, the euro is softer, and both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan pools are trading below 7.30 to the dollar after the private-sector Caixin services purchasing manager index dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July (the 50 level marks the...

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