Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

CAD

Rate expectations

This morning’s move in bonds might not rival the transition from Brosnan to Craig, but it has reordered the global currency landscape. Yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is down against all of its rivals after a softer-than-anticipated October inflation print. The Federal Reserve is now expected to ease policy more quickly and dramatically than many of its major counterparts over the next year – with the European Central Bank standing as the lone exception.  But long-term yield differentials are still tilted overwhelmingly in the dollar’s favour. The difference between ten-year Treasury yields and our gross domestic...

Read More Read More

Markets flatline ahead of inflation print

Traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of this morning’s US consumer price index report, which is expected to show underlying inflation pressures remaining relatively stubborn, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish footing. Equity futures, Treasury yields, and the dollar are moving sideways. The Canadian dollar remains weak amid an absence of domestic catalysts – and against a more cautious risk backdrop. The British pound is almost unchanged against the dollar and euro after data showed wage growth slowing slightly in the third quarter, but remaining well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone. Earnings excluding bonuses were 7.7...

Read More Read More

Risk appetite fades after Powell shuts door on doves

Foreign exchange markets are trading with a mild risk-off tone after yesterday’s disappointing Treasury auction and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell helped lift yields and bolster demand for the dollar. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly softer open, commodity prices are still trending downward, and rate-sensitive currencies—like the Canadian dollar—are back on the defensive. Yields reversed higher yesterday morning after a $24-billion auction of 30-year Treasuries failed to meet sufficient demand, with a “tail”—the extra premium demanded by investors to hold long-term paper—exceeding 5 basis points. The pension funds and insurers which typically absorb the...

Read More Read More

All talk, no action in markets

The dollar is staging a modest rebound after a cast of hawkish Fed speakers worked to put the rate cut genie back in the bottle yesterday. In a series of appearances, Bowman, Goolsbee and Logan all noted that inflation remained too high and the labour market was still healthy by pre-pandemic standards, and Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg there’d been “no discussion” of lowering interest rates among policymakers. Bets on at least four quarter-point cuts by early 2025 slipped slightly through the session, and Treasury yields retraced some of their gains. More Fedspeak is in the offing today: Traders are expecting...

Read More Read More

Trade whack-a-mole

Based on this morning’s data from the Census Bureau, one could be forgiven for imagining that the trade tariffs implemented under the Trump administration – and kept largely intact under Biden – are working. The US goods deficit in the first nine months of the year shrank relative to the same period in 2022. And although Mexico’s share of US merchandise imports dipped slightly relative to China’s in September, it remained well ahead on a 12-month rolling average basis. Calls to eliminate trade deficits by applying across-the-board 10-percent tariffs – growing louder on the campaign trail ahead of the 2024...

Read More Read More