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CAD

23 Oct 2023

Flashbacks to 2007 haunt markets

Ten-year Treasury yields broke through the 5-percent threshold to a 16-year high earlier this morning, increasing strain on the global financial system and driving renewed demand for the dollar. Major equity indices are sliding ahead of the North American open, oil prices are retreating, copper prices are down sharply, and most major currencies are trading on the defensive relative to the greenback as some investors take out insurance against a re-run of the global financial crisis. Three factors appear to be shaping the move higher: Last week’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in which he appeared to suggest...

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18 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions worsen, supporting safe havens

Markets are back in risk-off mode after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza shifted the calculus around President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, and raised the risk of a wider conflagration. Oil prices are rising as Iran calls for an embargo against Israel, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, and the dollar is maintaining altitude. Flight-to-safety flows are likely to subside through the session, but Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since 2006 after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number raised the likelihood of more monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Cumulative futures-implied odds...

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17 Oct 2023

Divergent North American Data Supports Greenback

US retail spending rose by more than expected last month, keeping the US exceptionalism trade intact and helping support yields across the front end of the curve. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in September after an upwardly-revised 0.8-percent gain in August, up 3.4 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.3 percent headline gain. Gas station sales climbed 0.9 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 1 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations...

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17 Oct 2023

Markets soften ahead of key data releases

Risk appetites are on the wane in financial markets once again this morning, with a raft of critical data releases looming even as geopolitical tensions simmer in the background. Treasury yields are edging higher, with the ten-year pushing back through 4.75 percent, equity futures oriented toward a slightly softer open, and Brent prices holding above the $90 mark. The dollar is still showing signs of strength relative to the euro and yen, but gains have slowed relative to the pace set last week. Investors are still processing the implications of President Biden’s freshly-announced trip to Israel, in which he is...

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16 Oct 2023

Glasses Half Empty

Mashing this morning’s Bank of Canada third-quarter Survey of Consumer Expectations and Business Outlook Survey together, it’s clear that businesses and households and businesses are aware – perhaps more than markets – of the lagged effects of monetary tightening. Both consumers and businesses are relatively optimistic on employment conditions in the years ahead, but seem resigned to elevated levels of inflation, and most think the adverse impact of central bank monetary tightening has yet to hit the economy. This runs contrary to consensus forecasts, which are – broadly speaking – set for a “soft landing”, but it wouldn’t be entirely...

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