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CAD

29 Nov 2023

Canada’s Sahm Of All Fears

The Sahm Rule, named after former Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors economist Claudia Sahm, indicates that a US recession has begun when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low during the prior 12 months. As outlined in a previous piece, it has not yet reached that threshold in the United States. In Canada, a slightly higher threshold is needed – calculations are performed differently in each country, and the level of unemployment is typically higher north of the border. Claudia addressed this in a 2021...

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29 Nov 2023

Rate cut bets solidify, pushing global markets higher

Markets are high on rate-cut hopium again this morning, with risk-sensitive assets extending a rally that began yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller set the stage for a policy pivot in early 2024. In a speech and interview, the erstwhile hawk said he was “increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent,”—indicating that the central bank’s rate-setting committee was unlikely to raise rates further—before suggesting that a “hard landing” wouldn’t necessarily be needed to prompt rate cuts. If the decline in inflation continues “for several more months… three months, four...

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28 Nov 2023

Dollar steadies amid softer flows

The dollar is trading just above a three-month low and Treasury yields are creeping higher after yesterday’s drop. Benchmark ten-year rates tumbled more than 10 basis points during the session after the government auctioned $109 billion in short-term notes without triggering any turmoil, adding to a weaker-than-forecast new home sales number in convincing investors that markets and the economy are beginning to normalize after a prolonged sequence of unusual developments. The euro is inching lower in early trade, failing to gain traction after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel tried pushing back against rate cut expectations. “It would be premature to lower...

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27 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Canadian consumers aren’t spending. US inflation pressures are subsiding. The renminbi is stabilizing. The euro area economy is showing signs of bottoming. Technicals support further gains.

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27 Nov 2023

Blue Monday follows Black Friday

Markets are kicking off the week on a more cautious footing after Chinese data disappointed relative to expectations, pointing to a stronger disinflationary impulse from the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial profits increased just 2.7 percent from a year ago in October, according to numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics, down from September’s 11.9 percent and August’s 17.2 percent as global demand weakens and a domestic recovery runs out of momentum. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels in a week, equity futures are retreating, and the dollar is stabilizing as demand for commodity-linked units and emerging-market...

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