Weekly Chartbook

• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA outlook unchanged as overall fiscal impulse little different. Federal Election due by 17 May.• Data flow. Monthly AU CPI indicator released today. Global markets still focused on US reciprocal tariffs...

• Hold the line. US equities ticked up on Friday, as did the USD. EUR & GBP eased back at the end of last week, as did the AUD & NZD.• Tariff news. US’ reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled on 2 April. What form they will take is still unknown. Uncertainty may generate more volatility.• Event radar. In AU the Budget & monthly CPI are due this week. Globally, PMIs are released. In...

• Jitters return. Post-US Fed optimism faded. Equities slipped back. USD index rose. NZD & AUD depreciated. AUD near ~$0.63, its March average.• AU jobs. February figures had more noise than signal. Employment fell but unemployment held steady. RBA shouldn’t jump at one month’s data.• Trading ranges. Yesterdays intra-day swing in AUD & NZD was larger than average. More vol. likely...

• US Fed. No surprises with the Fed keeping interest rates on hold & noting uncertainty has “increased” due to what is happening policy-wise.• Mixed markets. US equities rose while bond yields declined. The USD gave back earlier gains. AUD near ~$0.6360 ahead of today’s AU jobs report.• NZ GDP. Data confirmed NZ emerged from recession in Q4 ’24. But there is still a lot...

• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum. Topline US retail sales weaker than expected. Growth trends weighing on the USD.• Central banks. Over coming days the Bank of Japan, US Fed, & Bank of England meet. Will the US Fed be more focused...

• Positive vibes. Prospect of more China stimulus & German fiscal spending supported sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, as did AUD & NZD.• Tariff impacts. US tariff effects showing up in the data. US consumer sentiment tumbled, while inflation expectations jumped up.• Event Radar. A busy week ahead. China data & US retail sales (Today), BoJ (Weds), US Fed, AU jobs, NZ GDP, & BoE (all...

• Tariff news. Threats of more tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US & EU unnerved markets. Equities & bond yields fell. AUD & NZD dip.• More vol. S&P500 now in “correction” territory. More vol. likely as 2 April approaches. This is when the US will announce ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.• Macro events. A busy week ahead macro wise. China data (Mon), BoJ (Weds), US...

• Improved sentiment. After a difficult spell risk appetite improved a little overnight. US equities rose, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. After the US confirmed tariffs on steel & aluminium imports the EU unveiled countermeasures. Canada also announced more steps.• US CPI. Inflation cooled in the US. This supported risk markets. But the data doesn’t yet capture...

• US jobs. Lukewarm US jobs report didn’t stir the market pot. US equities rose, as did bond yields. EUR extended its upswing. AUD drifted back.• EUR strength. Prospect of more EU fiscal spending is supporting the EUR. AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP down near multi-year lows. Is too much priced in?• Event Radar. US CPI (Weds) due. Bank of Canada (Weds night) expected to cut rates again. News about US...

Markets have joined economists in thinking that trade wars really aren’t good, or easy to win. After weeks of dizzying changes in US tariff policies, the S&P 500 is down 7 percent from all-time highs, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the dollar is down against all of its major counterparts—despite this morning’s relatively-stable non-farm payrolls report. In the latest development, Donald...