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CAD

20 Feb 2025

USD losing altitude

• Softer USD. Firmer JPY & positive rhetoric about a possible US-China trade deal weigh on the USD. AUD & NZD up at pre-Christmas levels.• US consumer. Update from Walmart raised concerns about the health of the US consumer. Household spending is the engine room of the US economy.• AU jobs. Another positive jobs report. Employment stronger than expected. Data supports the RBA’s ‘hawkish’ guidance about future rate cuts. Global Trends Economic data didn’t move the needle overnight, rather concerns about the health of the US consumer via an update from bellwether stock Walmart and hopes of a trade deal...

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20 Feb 2025

Consumer Worries Drag Dollar Lower

Financial markets are turning more sceptical on the outlook for the US consumer and corporate sector this morning, forcing the dollar into a renewed retreat. Equity futures are pushing lower in response to weaker-than-expected guidance from consumer-spending bellwether Walmart, and after reports suggesting that new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered the Pentagon to cut 8 percent from its budget in each of the next five years hammered military-adjacent stocks. Treasury yields are edging lower, with the ten-year holding just above 4.5 percent, and currencies like the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, euro, and Japanese yen are advancing amid thin trading...

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19 Feb 2025

RBNZ stands out from the crowd

• Holding. Despite some swings in other asset classes net moves in FX have been modest. JPY outperformed. AUD still hovering near the top of its range.• RBNZ cuts. Another 50bp rate cut by the RBNZ yesterday. More easing is projected. This contrasts the RBA. We expect AUD to outperform the NZD.• AU jobs. Labour force data due today. Another solid set of figures anticipated. If realised, this will support the RBA’s ‘hawkish’ guidance about more rate cuts. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across asset markets overnight as geopolitical and economic news pushed and pulled on sentiment, especially in Europe. In...

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19 Feb 2025

Price Action Eases As Data Deluge Slows

Price action in financial markets looks remarkably muted this morning as shell-shocked investors stay sidelined against a quiet data backdrop. The dollar is inching higher amid thin trading volumes, most major pairs are within 0.2 percentage points of yesterday’s close, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is less than a basis point higher, and North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Currency traders yawned when Donald Trump issued a new round of tariff threats last night, this time promising to hit automotive imports, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors with taxes “in the neighbourhood” of 25 percent. “It’ll go very...

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18 Feb 2025

RBA rate relief

• RBA relief. As anticipated RBA cut rates yesterday. But was ‘hawkish’ in terms of future moves. Data will drive the RBA’s decisions. AUD near 2-month highs.• RBNZ today. RBNZ expected to cut rates by 50bps for the 3rd straight meeting today. But will it signal a more measured approach from here?• Global trends. Bond yields rose & USD ticked up overnight. UK wages & Canadian CPI surprised to the upside. Global inflation risks remain. Global Trends Market moves have been modest overnight despite a few geopolitical and macro developments hitting the wires. In terms of geopolitics officials from the...

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