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AUD

US jobs in focus

• US wobbles. US equities declined & USD softened. Public spat between Musk & Trump intensified. AUD touched a fresh year-to-date high.• Macro trends. ECB delivered a ‘hawkish’ cut. Tweaks to inflation forecasts & rhetoric suggest ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.• US jobs. Monthly US jobs figures in focus tonight. Various indicators point to a cooling US labour market. Will the data spring a surprise? Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces generated a few wobbles overnight. On net, in contrast to the modest uptick in European equities the major US markets declined (S&P500 -0.5%) with...

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Hold the line

• Holding on. Consolidation across markets on Friday. US yields slipped back. AUD & NZD tread water. AUD near 1-month average.• Data flow. Tariff impacts starting to show. Container traffic to US slowing. Medium-term downside growth risks remain in place, in our view.• Event Radar. Q1 AU GDP due this week. ECB & BoC are meeting. A few US Fed members speak. US ISM & monthly jobs report also scheduled. Global Trends Despite a flurry of US data releases on Friday it was a quiet end to the week in markets. On net the US S&P500 was little changed over...

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Tariff sabre rattling

• Tariff news. Threats of increased US tariffs on the EU rattled nerves on Friday. US President Trump pushed out the deadline this morning.• FX trends. US growth challenges & policy uncertainty weighs on USD. AUD & NZD edge higher. AUD & NZD also outperform on the crosses.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). AU monthly CPI due (Weds). US PCE deflator released (Fri). Several US Fed members speaking. Global Trends Market nerves were shaken on Friday during the US trading session after President Trump rattled the ‘Tariff Sabre’ once again. The EU and Apple were in President...

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Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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Words vs actions

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due this week. Tariff impacts will be looked for. Global Trends Markets consolidated at the end of last week with limited economic data released and with participants lasering in on the weekend meeting between US...

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