AUD

• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate some vol. But outlook for a steady stream of US rate cuts should remain. This is a USD headwind.• Policy convergence. Further RBA easing anticipated. But more aggressive steps by US Fed could see rates switch in favour of RBA in late-2026. Global Trends A generally positive session in markets overnight with weaker than predicted US producer prices setting the tone. Equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.3%) touching another record,...

• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated. Pace of jobs growth looks a lot slower. US Fed likely to deliver a series of rate cuts.• Inflation trends. US producer price inflation due tonight. Consumer prices out tomorrow. Will the data show greater pass-through from tariffs? Global Trends A mixed performance across markets overnight. The US S&P500 (+0.3%) hit a fresh record with the index now over 10% higher compared to where it ended...

• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls due tonight. Negative revisions could keep USD on backfoot, a tailwind for other currencies.• Inflation pulse. US producer & consumer prices due later this week. More signs of tariff driven inflation may generate a burst of market volatility. Global Trends News wise it has been a quiet start to the week. The lack of fresh information has seen markets reinforce their US Fed interest rate cut...

• US jobs. Weaker than forecast US jobs report. US Fed rate cut expectations increase. Lower US bond yields weigh on USD. AUD & NZD firmer.• Fed policy. Step down in employment points to a series of rate cuts by US Fed. Markets toying with the idea of a 50bp move later this month.• Key Events. In the US, revisions to non-farm payrolls in focus this week, as are producer prices & CPI inflation. ECB also meets. No change expected. Global Trends The state of the US jobs market was in the spotlight on Friday and the data (once again)...

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment overnight with equities rising, bond yields falling, & the USD weaker. AUD/USD rebounded.• US data. US job openings weaker than expected. Cracks in the US jobs market are widening. US Fed looks set to lower rates over the next few meetings.• AU GDP. Growth stronger than forecast. Private sector activity picked up. RBA Gov. Bullock indicated if this continues “may not” need as many rate cuts. Global Trends A bit of a reversal of fortunes overnight with the previous sessions modest bout of risk aversion unwinding. European and US equities rose with the tech-focused...