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AUD

01 Apr 2025

Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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27 Mar 2025

Planes, trains & automobiles

• US tariffs. Tariff developments dominate the headlines. Yesterday the US announced 25% duties on vehicle imports. Reciprocal tariffs due 2 April.• Holding on. Equities eased, as did the USD. NZD ticked higher while AUD is hovering near ~$0.63. RBA & US jobs report also on the radar next week.• EUR risks. EUR strengthened over the past month. Is too much good news priced in? EU exposed to vehicle tariffs. EU is a large US trading partner. Global Trends US tariff developments continue to dominate the headlines and generate bursts of market volatility. Yesterday morning the US Administration came through...

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27 Mar 2025

AUD/EUR: signs of life emerging

The jump up in the EUR over March, particularly in the first few weeks of the month, on the back of the optimism about the Eurozone’s growth prospects stemming from the ‘sea change’ in fiscal/defence spending, has been a key theme in FX markets (chart 1). The EUR’s resurgence has also been an important force that has dragged crosses like AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR to the lower end of their respective multi-year ranges. At face value, the underlying shift coming through with regards to fiscal spending and infrastructure investment by governments is a longer-term economic support for Europe. This helps reinforce...

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25 Mar 2025

Holding on

• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA outlook unchanged as overall fiscal impulse little different. Federal Election due by 17 May.• Data flow. Monthly AU CPI indicator released today. Global markets still focused on US reciprocal tariffs which will be announced on 2 April. Global Trends Market moves were rather modest overnight. A late-session rally in a few of the US big tech stocks saw the S&P500 eke out a small gain (+0.2%)...

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23 Mar 2025

Tariff guessing game

• Hold the line. US equities ticked up on Friday, as did the USD. EUR & GBP eased back at the end of last week, as did the AUD & NZD.• Tariff news. US’ reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled on 2 April. What form they will take is still unknown. Uncertainty may generate more volatility.• Event radar. In AU the Budget & monthly CPI are due this week. Globally, PMIs are released. In the US the PCE deflator is out on Friday night. Global Trends It was an uneventful end to the trading week on Friday with no major...

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