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AUD

02 Jul 2024

Mixed signals

• Mixed markets. Divergence between US & European equities, while long-end bond yields & the USD gave back a little ground. AUD a touch firmer.• US macro. Fed Chair Powell noted there has been “quite a bit” of inflation progress. But more is needed. The ‘quits rate’ points to lower wages/inflation.• Data flow. Australian retail sales due today. UK election tomorrow. In the US, ADP employment, services ISM, & jobless claims released tonight. While there was a bit of divergence in equities overnight (the major European markets slipped back ~0.5% and the US S&P500 rose ~0.6% to be within striking...

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26 Jun 2024

RBA’s inflation challenge

• Firmer USD. No major economic releases but bond yields & the USD rose overnight. USD/JPY around levels last traded in late-1986. AUD round trip.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI higher than anticipated. Odds of another RBA rate hike as soon as 6 August have risen. Relative trends should be AUD supportive.• Events. RBA Dep. Gov. Hauser speaks & US durable goods due. PCE deflator released Fri night. US Presidential Election debate tomorrow (Fri 11am AEST). Financial markets have livened up a bit over the past 24hrs. Although outside of Australia where yesterday’s monthly CPI data surprised and triggered a repricing...

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26 Jun 2024

Dollar Keeps Winning Reverse Beauty Contest

Global bond yields are rising and the US dollar is trading on a firmer footing this morning after inflation surged unexpectedly in Canada and Australia, threatening to upend the rate cut consensus across developed markets and jeopardise growth outlooks. Australian price growth accelerated to its fastest in six months in May, knocking markets off balance and raising the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 4.0 percent in May, climbing from 3.6 percent in April and topping market forecasts that had been set at 3.8...

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26 Jun 2024

Australia’s inflation problem

Australia’s inflation genie is struggling to be put back in the bottle. The monthly CPI indicator for May was hotter than predicted. Headline inflation re-accelerated to 4%pa (from 3.6%pa in April), its fastest pace in 7-months with the 3-month and 6-month annualized run-rates also ticking higher. Positive base-effects were a factor but the detail under the hood would also be on the RBA’s radar given it has indicated limited tolerance for upside surprises. Notably, the disinflation across ‘goods’ prices looks to be stalling (‘goods’ inflation has held steady at 3.3%pa over the past few months, above its pre-COVID average). And...

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25 Jun 2024

Holding pattern

• Range trading. US equities rebound, while bond yields & the USD tread water. Upside surprise in Canadian inflation generated limited CAD impact.• AU CPI. May reading of the monthly CPI due today. Data will include more services prices. Consensus looking for annual inflation to re-accelerate.• US events. No major US data or speeches tonight. Durable goods (Thurs night AEST) & PCE deflator (Fri night AEST) the next key US releases. In the main global markets continue to range trade with Northern Hemisphere summer trading conditions kicking into gear. Unlike the modest falls across European equities (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%), US equities...

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