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AUD

31 Jul 2024

US rate cuts coming into view

• Positive vibes. Cooling US labour market conditions & US Fed hints that a rate cut in September is possible boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD.• AUD reversal. AUD recouped its post AU CPI losses. Core inflation still a long way from home. RBA hike risks extinguished but cuts still some time away.• BoJ moves. Larger than anticipated BoJ rate rise. Policy divergence is reviving the JPY. USD/JPY back below 150. AUD/JPY ~10% below July peak. A positive night for risk assets with signs of a cooling US labour market, moderating wage pressures, and signals from the US...

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31 Jul 2024

CPI washes away RBA rate hike prospects

A surprise in the Q2 AU CPI, though for the first time in a few months it looks a bit more favourable for indebted households and businesses. While headline CPI nudged up inline with consensus forecasts to 3.8%pa, the important core inflation measure (i.e. the trimmed mean) was a touch softer than built up expectations. Core inflation rose 0.8% in Q2 with the annual rate slipping to 3.9%pa (chart 1). We think this should see the RBA hold fire and keep interest rates steady at its 6 August meeting. The unwind in Australian interest rate expectations, and paring back of...

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30 Jul 2024

Jam-packed macro calendar

• Cross-currents. Sell-off in US tech stocks resumes. US bond yields lower, while in FX the USD consolidated. AUD range bound over the past 24hrs.• Q2 CPI. Australian inflation due today. Data will make or break the case for another RBA hike. Consensus forecasts are above the RBA’s assumptions.• Global events. Offshore the China PMIs, EZ CPI, & US ECI are due. The BoJ also meets, while tomorrow morning the US Fed delivers its decision. There were a few renewed wobbles in markets overnight ahead of a jam-packed 24hrs of economic releases and central bank decisions. The sell-off in US...

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29 Jul 2024

The calm before the storm?

• Quiet start. No major data or news overnight. Major asset classes contained to recent ranges. AUD hovering near its 1-year average, NZD a bit weaker.• Busy few days. Several events looming. In the US there are a few jobs indicators due over coming days, with the US Fed also meeting.• AU CPI. Quarterly inflation due tomorrow. This is a more detailed set of figures. Consensus looking for core inflation to come in above the RBA’s forecasts. It has been a quiet start to the week, unsurprising given the lack of economic data and news. In contrast to Eurozone equities...

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28 Jul 2024

Push & pull factors

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment. Equities rebound. Bond yields lower. Backdrop helps the AUD claw back a little lost ground.• Volatility bursts. It is a jam-packed week of events. We think more market volatility is likely as the macro cross-currents wash through.• Event radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). BoJ (Weds), BoE & US Fed (both Thurs) meet. US payrolls are released (Fri), as is the China PMI & EZ CPI (Weds). After a challenging spell risk sentiment improved a bit at the end of last week. European and US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 up over...

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