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AUD

In the eye of the storm?

• Calmer markets. European equities rose, while US markets gave back initial gains. EUR lost a bit of ground. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. Tariff-related developments somewhat negative. EU/US talks haven’t found common ground. China still pushing back. US data soft.• Macro events. China GDP out today. In the US retail sales & speech by Fed Chair Powell in focus tonight. AU jobs report due tomorrow, as is NZ CPI. Global Trends Compared to the past few weeks markets were relatively calm overnight. While European equities rose (EuroStoxx600 +1.6%), the US indices gave back initial gains to end...

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USD remains under pressure

• Upbeat tone. US equities rose on Friday, so did commodities. This, & the decline in the USD helped the AUD & NZD extend their upswings.• Tariff news. US announced various electronics imported from China will be ‘exempt’ from higher tariffs. But it only looks like a temporary reprieve.• Event Radar. China GDP, US retail sales, the BoC & ECB meetings, & a speech by Chair Powell are due this week. As is the AU jobs report & NZ CPI. Global Trends US tariff news remains in the driver’s seat. Sentiment improved in Friday’s US trade with equities pushing higher,...

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Made in America

• Risk wobbles. Concerns about a US-China trade war remain. US equities slipped back & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD pushed higher.• Tariff impacts. US’ effective tariff rate is still very high. Downside US growth risks remain. This & reduced investor confidence are USD negatives.• Volatility. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated over the period ahead. There’s still a lot of water to go under the tariff bridge. Global Trends Financial markets remain lively with the chopping and changing in US trade policy still firmly in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s positive jolt from the announced ‘pause’ in...

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Wild market swings continue

• Volatility. Tariff news continues to generate volatility. US equities unwound early gains to end the day lower. AUD & NZD followed. CNH also weaker.• Tariff news. While there were signals about deals for some nations, goods from China are set to be hit with another tariff. This dampened sentiment.• Macro events. RBNZ expected to cut interest rates again today. Tariff developments will continue to drive markets for a while. Global Trends Volatility in markets has continued with tariff-related headlines still the driving force. The initial positive sentiment in the US session following the rebound in Asian and European equities...

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Global risks don’t equate to a crisis

Last week’s ‘reciprocal tariff’ announcements by the US, and subsequent retaliation last Friday by China, has caused a fair degree of market upheaval. Given the broad-based and outsized tariffs imposed on goods shipped to the US, concerns about downside growth and upside inflation risks have spiked, and this has triggered an abrupt repricing in ‘complacent’ asset markets (chart 1). Equities and commodities have tumbled sharply over the past few sessions, as have growth-linked currencies such as the NZD and particularly the AUD which has plunged to levels last traded in the early dark days of COVID (now ~$0.6030). In our...

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