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AUD

07 Aug 2024

Fear subsides. But will it last?

• JPY trends. The weaker JPY boosted sentiment yesterday. Asian/European equities rose, as did long-end bond yields. AUD hovering near ~$0.6520.• NZD bounce. Better than feared NZ jobs report supported the NZD. But ‘slack’ is still increasing. A matter of time before the RBNZ starts to cut rates. The market nervousness from earlier this week has continued to subside. Asian and European equities rose 1-2%, with Japan’s Nikkei effectively back to where it was ahead of Monday’s dramatic sell-off. That said, it hasn’t been all one-way with US stock markets fading as the overnight session rolled on (S&P500 -0.8%). Bond...

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06 Aug 2024

Turnaround Tuesday

• Market rebound. Partial reversal in risk sentiment. US equities & bond yields rose overnight. USD index ticked up, while the AUD outperformed.• RBA hold. No change in rates from the RBA. But another hike was considered. Rate cuts still some time away. Policy divergence should be AUD supportive. A sense of calm has returned to markets with a partial reversal of the burst of risk aversion coming through over the past 24hrs. The Japanese Nikkei rebounded sharply with the index up over ~10% yesterday. US equities rose overnight, albeit more modestly (S&P500 +1%), with the VIX volatility index dropping...

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06 Aug 2024

RBA: Hold your horses

The RBA played a rather straight bat at today’s meeting with recent market gyrations not swaying the central bank to alter its mildly ‘hawkish’ vibes. Interest rates were kept steady at 4.35%, where they have been since last November, with inflation still front of mind. As outlined by the RBA, inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak but it is “some way” from the 2-3% target midpoint with the latest figures showing pressures are “proving persistent”. In its updated projections, while the RBA lowered its near-term headline CPI forecasts to take into account of the relief measures such as energy...

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05 Aug 2024

Panic at the disco

• Equity slump. Large falls in global equities. Japan’s Nikkei plunged ~12% yesterday. Fears of a ‘hard landing’ have rattled nerves. Volatility spikes.• Driving factors. Soft US jobs report, lofty valuations, & an unwind of built-up Japan/JPY trades have combined. But credit spreads haven’t moved much.• RBA today. AUD near ~$0.65. Negative sentiment has seen markets factor in rapid-fire RBA rate cuts. We think things may have moved too far, too fast. Crash, bang, wallop. Markets have been in a tailspin over the past few sessions with larger falls in equities, a spike in volatility, and substantial repricing in interest...

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01 Aug 2024

Risk wobbles return

• Risk off. Weaker US data dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD ticked up, with cyclical assets like the AUD under pressure.• BoE cut. BoE delivered its first cut of the cycle. Further easing likely. US rate cut expectations have ramped up. More than 4 moves priced in by January.• US jobs. US jobs report released tonight. A softer print could drag US yields even lower. But would this generate a negative or positive market spillover? The positive tone in markets reversed overnight with concerns about the economic environment in the US dampening sentiment. US and European equities...

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