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AUD

14 Aug 2024

AUD/NZD – RBNZ joins the rate cut club

Another one bites the dust with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today joining the likes of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England in kick starting its monetary policy easing cycle. The RBNZ delivered a 25bp reduction, lowering the official cash rate to 5.25%. The RBNZ went hard and early during the interest rate hiking phase, and the negative impacts from 15-months of very ‘restrictive’ settings are being felt across the NZ economy. The previously reluctant RBNZ has (finally) seen the light, something we believed was a matter of time (see Market Musings:...

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13 Aug 2024

Positive vibes

• Positive jolt. Soft US producer prices boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, while bond yields & the USD declined. AUD’s rebound has extended.• RBNZ today. AUD/NZD on the radar. RBNZ meets today. Markets & economists split on whether a cut is delivered. AUD/NZD volatility likely.• Data flow. US CPI inflation out tonight. UK CPI also due. Tomorrow, Australian jobs, the China activity data batch, & US retail sales are released. A subdued US Producer Price Index, a sign upstream inflation pressures are moderating, generated a positive jolt for risk sentiment overnight. US headline PPI rose just 0.1% in July,...

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12 Aug 2024

Data flow set to heat up

• Quiet start. Subdued start to the new week. US equities consolidated, bond yields slipped back. Commodities firmer. This helped the AUD drift higher.• Data flow. UK jobs & US PPI due today. US inflation, RBNZ meeting, & UK CPI out tomorrow. Will the US PPI/CPI show moderating inflation pressures?• AU data. Q2 wages & business conditions in focus today. Wages drive services inflation. The monthly Australian jobs report out on Thursday. In contrast to the panic sell-off across markets last Monday it was a typical quiet start to the week yesterday. US equities consolidated (NASDAQ +0.2%, S&P500 flat), bond...

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11 Aug 2024

Busy week ahead

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

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08 Aug 2024

What recession?

• Fading concerns. Lower US jobless claims eased US recession fears. US equities surged. Cyclical currencies like the AUD outperformed.• RBA hawks. ‘Hawkish’ rhetoric from RBA Gov. Bullock also supported the AUD. The RBA is diverging from the pack. We think this is AUD positive.• Event radar. Limited data today. Several releases next week including US CPI/retail sales, China data, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. Market fears have continued to fade with cyclical assets enjoying a positive 24hrs. Concerns a US recession is around the corner eased further after the latest read on initial jobless claims fell to a multi-week...

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