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AUD

Turbulent times

• Tariff news. Reports the Trump Administration might implement tariffs month-by-month calmed some market nerves. USD eased helping AUD & NZD tick up.• Stepping back. But moves were modest compared to recent trends. AUD & NZD remain near the bottom of their respective multi-year ranges.• Event radar. UK & US CPI released tonight. Several Fed members speaking. AU employment tomorrow. US retail sales & China data also due this week. Global TrendsIt has been a turbulent start to 2025, though a sense of calm somewhat returned yesterday after media reports suggested the incoming Trump Administration might implement trade tariffs on...

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Tariff and Inflation Worries Kick Yields and the Dollar Higher

Bond yields and the greenback are sitting on substantial gains this morning on the back of a report suggesting that the US could apply universal tariffs on its major trading partners, and after data released yesterday seemed to bolster the case for a slowing in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, triggering a pullback in market bets on rate cuts. The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is sitting near 4.7 percent—roughly ten basis points above the Monday open—and global rates curves are climbing in sympathy with the US move, with British gilts selling off at the most extreme pace. After having fully...

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Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar

As the curtain rises on 2025, the dollar is tumbling on a report suggesting that incoming US president Donald Trump will ultimately implement tariffs on a much narrower set of products than he had threatened on the campaign trail. According to the Washington Post, advisors to the president-elect are preparing plans to impose import taxes on goods deemed critical to national or economic security—products related to defence industries, strategically-important energy inputs and commodities, and critical medical supplies—instead of the “universal” 10-to-20-percent tariffs previously proposed. This would inflict less pain on the global economy, and reduce the risk of an inflationary...

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Central bank divergence

• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today. Is too much ‘good news’ priced in the USD? A sense of calm has returned to markets following yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ US Fed induced volatility. US equities consolidated. Though given the size of yesterday’s falls (the...

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Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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