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AUD

27 Aug 2024

Hanging in there

• Range bound. Limited moves across most markets. News flow has been light. USD drifted lower. AUD & NZD towards the top of their respective ranges.• Iron ore. The revival has continued. Iron ore prices now over 11% above mid-August lows on the back of signs oversupply risks are easing.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI due today. A lot of uncertainty because of electricity subsidies. A large drop in headline inflation could drag on the AUD. ‘Steady as she goes’ over the past 24hrs with consolidation the main theme across most major markets. News flow has been light. The major European...

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26 Aug 2024

Holding pattern

• Consolidation. Partial reversal in some markets. US equities slip back while yields & the USD tick up. AUD eased but still near the top of its range.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation due tomorrow. A lot of uncertainty due to electricity subsidies. A large drop in the annual headline rate could weigh on the AUD.• Fed pricing. Markets grappling with whether the US Fed will cut rates by 25bps or 50bps at upcoming meetings. History & the data points to 25bp steps. After the outsized moves last week it isn’t surprising to see that some markets cooled their jets a...

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26 Aug 2024

Don’t fight the Fed

Don’t fight the US Federal Reserve. The old market saying is back with a vengeance following Chair Powell’s explicit ‘dovish’ pivot in his latest speech at 2024 Jackson Hole Symposium. After being laser focused on upside inflation worries over the past few years the pendulum has clearly swung to the other part of the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’ with downside risks to employment now front of mind. Importantly, in the words of Chair Powell “the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data,...

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25 Aug 2024

The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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22 Aug 2024

Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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