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AUD

25 Sep 2024

Two steps forward, one step back

• Shaky sentiment. After a strong run equities slipped overnight. Bond yields rose & the USD clawed back ground. AUD & NZD dipped.• AU CPI. Monthly headline CPI indicator decelerated as government measures washed through. But progress on core/services inflation is more gradual.• Event radar. Several US Fed members speak tonight. US jobless claims & durable goods released. Locally, RBA’s FSR & job vacancies are due. After a strong run the positive risk sentiment that has washed through markets reversed course slightly over the past 24hrs. There has been little top-tier economic data released globally, and although geopolitical tensions in...

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23 Sep 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Upbeat tone. Last weeks larger than expected rate cut by the US Fed continues to wash through markets. US PCE deflator in focus this week.• Global PMIs. Softer Eurozone PMIs weighed a bit on the EUR. US PMIs holding up. Cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD remain firm.• RBA today. In contrast to its peers the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold today. Divergence between the RBA & others is underpinning the AUD. The implications of last week’s bigger than expected 50bp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve continues to be digested by markets. The...

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09 Sep 2024

USD bouncing back

• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range. USD has recovered some ground, while the NZD & AUD have lost altitude.• Event radar. US Pres. debate (Weds), US CPI (Weds), & ECB meeting (Thurs) in focus this week. Will the USD’s revival continue? Markets have enjoyed a relatively more positive start to the week as the dust settled following Friday nights US jobs report and comments by Fed officials which generated further turbulence. From...

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05 Sep 2024

US payrolls in focus

• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight. USD (& AUD) reaction likely to be binary. Stronger (weaker) data could be USD positive (negative).• RBA rhetoric. Gov. Bullock held firm. Level of demand & inflation still high. Rate cuts look some time away. Policy divergence AUD supportive. Recent market trends generally extended overnight, although the size of the moves has been more limited. The US S&P500 (-0.3%) slipped back for the third straight day, something which...

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04 Sep 2024

Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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