AUD

• Cross-currents. US equities outperformed. USD still elevated with global growth/US election concerns keeping NZD & AUD on the backfoot.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due today. Government measures will mechanically lower headline inflation. RBA more focused on trends in core CPI.• Data flow. US election is next week. Ahead of that US Q3 GDP is due tonight. PCE deflator & non-farm payrolls also released this week. Mixed signals overnight across markets and regions. Unlike the dip in European equities (EuroStoxx600 -0.6%) the US stockmarket rose. A rally by megacap tech names, which was led by Alphabet after its earnings beat...

• Push/Pull. Oil prices tumbled, while US equities, bond yields & USD ticked higher. AUD on the backfoot & is at levels last traded in mid-August.• USD upswing. Higher US yields as well as the weaker EUR & JPY pullback are underpinning the USD. US data could generate more strength.• US politics. US election next week. Odds of Trump winning have risen. Volatility likely with his policy platform also viewed as being USD supportive. There has been a bit more volatility in markets at the start of the week. Oil prices have tumbled with brent crude shedding ~5% (now ~$72/brl)....

• Mixed moves. US equities consolidated while bond yields nudged up. USD firmer driven by USD/JPY. AUD & NZD lost some ground on Friday.• US elections. US heads to the polls in just over a week. Trump is ahead in the battleground states. Volatility likely over the period ahead.• Event radar. Locally, Q3 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, US GDP & non-farm payrolls are released, as is EZ GDP/CPI & China PMIs. BoJ also meets. Markets were rather subdued on Friday with US equities consolidating (S&P500 flat, NASDAQ +0.6%) and bond yields unwinding the previous day’s dip (US 10yr +3bps...

• Limited moves. US equities ticked up, while bond yields & the USD eased. AUD treading water just above its 1-year average.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due next week. Gov. subsidies will see headline CPI fall. But improvement in core inflation should be more limited.• US politics. US election around the corner. Chances of a Trump win have risen. But the result may not be known for days/weeks after the event. Limited moves across markets overnight, although on balance there was a slight improvement in the underlying tone. On the back of a ~22% surge in the megacap Tesla’s share...