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AUD

14 Nov 2024

USD powering ahead

• Policy trends. The pricing in of the Trump agenda & comments by Fed Chair Powell have seen US rate cut expectations pared back.• USD upswing. The adjustment in yield spreads in the US’ favour is supporting the USD. We think this trend may have further to go.• Data pulse. The monthly China activity data is due today. Tonight, focus will be on US retail sales given consumption is the economic engine room. The post US-election market gyrations were on show again overnight as participants continue to contemplate what a Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps...

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12 Nov 2024

Trump trade kicking into gear

• Trump trade. Post US election repricing continues. US yields rose. Widening yield spreads are pushing up the USD. AUD on the backfoot.• US data. Trump policy agenda is USD supportive. Data wise, US CPI due tonight. Sticky core inflation could add to the USD’s upswing.• Local news. Consumer sentiment improved. Business conditions holding up. Q3 wages due today. Monthly jobs report out tomorrow. The post US-election repricing in markets extended overnight with participants continuing to factor in what the Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps to curb US immigration will mean for the outlook. Reports...

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11 Nov 2024

Diverging trends

• Hold the line. US equities at record highs, while shifting spreads are supporting the USD. EUR at multi-month low. AUD drifting back.• AUD divergence. AUD losing ground to the stronger USD. But it is holding up on the crosses. We expect these trends to continue.• Data flow. AU business conditions out today, as is the UK jobs report. Several US Fed members speaking over the next few sessions. It has been a quiet start to the week. Unsurprising given the US bond market was closed for Veteran’s Day and the lack of data releases/new information to move the dial....

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10 Nov 2024

Hang on for the ride

• Market swings. US equities rose, while widening yield spreads support the USD. AUD slips back after China stimulus underwhelms.• FX trends. The Trump policy mix looks set to keep the USD stronger for longer. We think this will constrain the AUD’s medium-term upside.• Event radar. Locally, wages & monthly jobs report are due. US CPI inflation, retail sales, speech by Fed Chair Powell, & China data also scheduled. Market gyrations continued Friday as the win by President Trump in the US elections (and prospect of a Republican sweep of Congress) is incorporated into people’s projections, central bank actions washed...

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07 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0 & the AUD

The decisive victory by former President Trump in the 2024 US election and elevated odds the Republicans also sweep Congress has generated bursts of market volatility over the past few sessions. This might be a taste of things to come. The election result shouldn’t be viewed as a ‘shock’ as it was 8 years ago. The outcome was in line with the signal various opinion polls and probability gauges had been pointing to for several weeks. Nevertheless, as we had forewarned in our prior research, a Trump win (particularly if it was compounded by Republican victories in both chambers of...

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