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AUD

27 Nov 2024

Fundamentals vs flows

• Softer USD. A firmer EUR, stronger JPY, & month-end portfolio rebalancing flows exerted a bit of downward pressure on the USD.• AUD & NZD. AUD ticked up & NZD rose despite RBNZ delivering a 50bp cut & indicating more to come. AUD/NZD below model estimates.• Holiday markets. US markets closed for Thanksgiving tonight & only open for a few hours on Friday. Thinner liquidity may generate bursts of intra-day vol. Mixed fortunes across markets over the past 24hrs with the economic data and central bank comments butting up against month-end portfolio rebalancing ahead of the US Thanksgiving holidays. US...

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26 Nov 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ stuck in reverse

In its final meeting of 2024 the RBNZ delivered another outsized rate cut with today’s 50bp reduction lowering the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Interest rates had peaked at 5.50% in NZ, but since turning course in August the RBNZ has delivered 125bps worth of easing in quick time as it looks to move settings out of the very ‘restrictive’ territory they were in. As a result, the RBNZ’s OCR is now below the RBA’s cash rate (now 4.35%) for the first time since mid-2013. And the gap should continue to widen, in our view, with the RBNZ set to...

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26 Nov 2024

The ‘tariff man’ is back

• US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump’s announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day.• USD firmer. The move supported the USD & weighed on cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD. Negative risk sentiment saw the JPY outperform.• Data flow. Today, the monthly AU CPI is due. RBNZ also expected to cut rates again with a 50bp reduction predicted by analysts. Markets were rattled yesterday after President-elect Trump fired a few shots in his post-election trade war. Via social media Trump stated that to curb the inflow of drugs and migrants he would...

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25 Nov 2024

US politics still in the driver’s seat

• US politics. Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick supported sentiment. US equities rose while bond yields fell. USD lost a little ground.• AUD dip. AUD bucked the trend to be back near ~$0.65. Underperformance on the crosses was a factor. We don’t think this should last.• Data flow. Limited releases today. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Australian monthly CPI also due Wednesday. Will it re-accelerate? The market tone has been a bit more upbeat at the start of the new week. News President-elect Trump has nominated experienced hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, a more orthodox choice than...

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24 Nov 2024

US economy still powering along

• Macro trends. PMIs showed US economy is outperforming. Yield spreads support the USD. EUR slipped below ~$1.04 for first time since Q4 ’22.• AUD holding. AUD bucked the trend. Relative strength on the crosses helped the AUD nudge up. We think these dynamics can continue.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). US PCE & EZ CPI also due. Relative strength of the US economy over its peers was on show again on Friday in the latest business PMI data. PMIs are leading indicators for growth, employment,...

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