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AUD

15 Dec 2024

Central banks in focus this week

• Mixed messages. Softer tone in equities. Bond yields continue to push higher. USD treads water, with a firmer EUR offset by a weaker JPY.• AUD & NZD. NZD tracking around levels last traded in late-2022. AUD near 2024 lows. Will this run continue or will the USD pause for breath?• Event radar. The China data batch, global PMIs, and US Fed/Bank of Japan meetings are the key events to watch this week. The divergent market trends continued into the end of last week. Equities had another soft session with a large drop in China (CSI300 -2.4%) leading the way...

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12 Dec 2024

Macro trends support the USD

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...

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11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA rate cuts coming into view

• RBA rhetoric. Changes by the RBA to its guidance weighed on AUD. NZD has gone along for the ride. Odds of a February RBA cut have risen.• Data driven. Data will drive the RBA’s decision. Jobs report released tomorrow. Quarterly CPI out in late-January.• Global macro. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again tonight. US CPI also due. Sticky core inflation could give the USD more support. Offshore market moves were fairly constrained overnight as participants await the latest read on US inflation (due tonight at 12:30am AEDT). European and US equities dipped with the S&P500 (-0.3%) holding...

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10 Dec 2024

The Aussie dollar is caught in a crossfire between domestic fundamentals and external risks

In the face of a firmer US dollar and US-related trade risks, the Australian dollar could linger in the mid-$0.60s over the first half of 2025 before undertaking a gradual rope climb higher later in the year: Market volatility is likely to pick up over coming months as US President-elect Trump enacts his policy agenda—but forward-looking currency markets have already partially priced in this risk, with the exchange rate trading at a discount to our various ‘fair value’ estimates. Authorities in China are likely to offset US tariff-induced export pain through a series of increases in internally focused infrastructure investment....

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