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AUD

Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar

As the curtain rises on 2025, the dollar is tumbling on a report suggesting that incoming US president Donald Trump will ultimately implement tariffs on a much narrower set of products than he had threatened on the campaign trail. According to the Washington Post, advisors to the president-elect are preparing plans to impose import taxes on goods deemed critical to national or economic security—products related to defence industries, strategically-important energy inputs and commodities, and critical medical supplies—instead of the “universal” 10-to-20-percent tariffs previously proposed. This would inflict less pain on the global economy, and reduce the risk of an inflationary...

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Central bank divergence

• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today. Is too much ‘good news’ priced in the USD? A sense of calm has returned to markets following yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ US Fed induced volatility. US equities consolidated. Though given the size of yesterday’s falls (the...

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Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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Commodity currencies under the pump

• Commodity FX. AUD, NZD, & CAD under pressure. AUD around levels last traded in November-2023. NZD touched a fresh ~2-year low.• Central banks. US Fed meets tomorrow, as does BoJ & BoE. Another Fed rate cut expected. Focus will be on its guidance & forecasts.• Already priced? Markets already factoring in fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. It could be hard for the Fed to be more ‘hawkish’ than what’s priced. Central bank meetings will be the focus over the next few sessions with the US Fed (Thurs 6am AEDT), Bank of Japan (Thurs, no set time), and Bank...

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Central banks in focus this week

• Mixed messages. Softer tone in equities. Bond yields continue to push higher. USD treads water, with a firmer EUR offset by a weaker JPY.• AUD & NZD. NZD tracking around levels last traded in late-2022. AUD near 2024 lows. Will this run continue or will the USD pause for breath?• Event radar. The China data batch, global PMIs, and US Fed/Bank of Japan meetings are the key events to watch this week. The divergent market trends continued into the end of last week. Equities had another soft session with a large drop in China (CSI300 -2.4%) leading the way...

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