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AUD

28 Jan 2025

RBA rate relief & the AUD

Favourable trends in Australian inflation mean interest rate relief for indebted households and businesses is on the horizon. Q4 2024 CPI printed below consensus forecasts (as it has tended to do over the past two years), and importantly it also undershot the RBA’s projections. Headline inflation rose just 0.2% in Q4 with the annual rate running at 2.4%pa. The trimmed mean (i.e. the RBA’s preferred underlying metric that provides a guide to inflation persistence) came in at 0.5%qoq. As a result, core inflation decelerated to 3.2%pa, with 6-month annualised growth, a gauge of the pulse rate trajectory, stepping down to...

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27 Jan 2025

Tech tumbles

• Equity pressure. AI news out of China weighed on US tech stocks. The 7 US megacaps have driven the overall market strength the past few years.• Spill-overs. Risk off tone in equities washed through other markets. Bond yields fell as did oil. JPY outperformed while AUD & NZD slipped back a bit.• Event radar. Locally, Q4 CPI in focus this week (Weds). Offshore, the US Fed, Bank of Canada, & ECB meet. Tech stocks also report earnings. Global Trends Some nervousness returned to markets after what had been a relatively more positive period last week. US equities kicked off...

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23 Jan 2025

Trump talk continues

• Trump talk. More comments from US President Trump overnight, but market reaction was relatively muted. Equities rose, while oil & the USD eased.• AUD & NZD. The USD pull-back is supporting AUD & NZD. Both are near the top of their respective 1-month ranges. AU CPI due next week.• BoJ hike? BoJ meets today. Another hike expected. We think the BoJ is ‘behind the curve’. Higher rates can help the JPY lift over the medium-term. Global Trends As has been the case the past few days comments by US President Trump in a virtual appearance at the World Economic...

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21 Jan 2025

US tariffs: delayed not derailed

• Trump vol. Markets were swung around by tariff news on Pres. Trump’s first day in office. But on net, equities rose while bond yields & the USD declined.• Delayed not derailed. Wide ranging reviews into US trade were announced. Findings due by 1 April. US trade tariffs still in the pipeline.• AUD & NZD. Softer USD has supported AUD & NZD. NZ headline CPI also a touch firmer than forecast. AU Q4 CPI due next week. Global Trends US President Trump’s second first day in office created a lot of buzz and generated a burst of volatility across markets....

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20 Jan 2025

Trump & tariffs

• US politics. President Trump is officially back in power. Reports tariffs could be implemented in a ‘measured way’ eased market nerves.• USD trends. Lack of follow through of election tariff threats exerted downward pressure on the USD. AUD & NZD bounced back.• Still watching. Various policies will be implemented. Vol. likely over period ahead. Short-term USD could ease helping AUD claw back more ground. Global Trends US politics has been in focus. Earlier today President Trump was inaugurated as the 47th US President. Outside of the inauguration there was little for markets to digest. US bond and equity markets...

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