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Off the Charts

06 Oct 2023

Private Matters

Signs of slowing momentum are everywhere below the headline level in today’s Canadian jobs report – hours worked are falling, part-time roles are growing, and the construction sector is (unsurprisingly) taking a beating. Market expectations for a prolonged pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle should remain intact. But businesses are still driving the bulk of the hiring activity. The public and educational services sectors added roughly 145,800 jobs over the last year, against a gain of 406,200 in the private sector. A spike in private sector unemployment – similar to those that have historically played a bigger role...

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25 Sep 2023

Weapons of mass disruption

In 1939, after the Soviets invaded Poland, Winston Churchill told radio audiences, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”  We find ourselves in a similar position. We cannot predict what Russia will do in the coming days, let alone the coming months. We’re not even sure the key is Russian national interest: Vladimir Putin’s actions in recent years would suggest he is driven by other motives.  We worry, however, that the world looks increasingly vulnerable...

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22 Sep 2023

Into thin air

The speed at which memes spread across the financial media can be astonishing. Since the Bank of England’s Huw Pill recently described the likely monetary policy trajectory as resembling Cape Town’s “Table Mountain” – steep on the sides, with a long plateau on top – in an August speech, sell-side analysts and commentators from major news publications have rushed to point out that the majority of mountain climbing deaths occur during the descent phase. This is true. A 2008 study showed that 73 percent of the deaths occurring between 1921 and 2006 on Mount Everest happened when climbers were descending...

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21 Sep 2023

Of tsunamis and wavelets

Japanese currency jawboning efforts have gained momentum in recent weeks, with the rhetoric reaching renewed levels of intensity over the last few days. Masato Kanda – Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs in the Ministry of Finance – warned authorities “will not rule out any options in dealing with excessive foreign exchange fluctuations,” and said “We’re in very close communication with the US monetary authorities and share the view that excessive volatility is undesirable”. Janet Yellen concurred, implicitly giving the US Treasury Department’s approval by saying “We usually communicate with them about these interventions and generally understand the need...

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