Market Wire, North America

Canadian headline inflation decelerated as expected last month, but the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada remained surprisingly sticky, arguably making a back-to-back rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting marginally less likely. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index decelerating to 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in May and matching consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.1 percent. As has been the case since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates, shelter costs did the...

US labour markets slowed more than expected in June, bolstering market odds on a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by September. On the headline level, the print was positive: according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 206,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 189,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, down from 0.4 percent in the prior month, and were up 3.9 percent year-over-year. However, revisions to prior months saw overall...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed as expected in May, bolstering odds on a rate cut before the November presidential election. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising just 0.1 percent in May from the prior month, matching market forecasts. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in April, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index flatlined relative to the prior month, rising 2.6 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.5 percent month-over-month,...