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Market Wire, North America

US Inflation Eases, Leaving Policy Expectations Intact … For Now

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in July, helping ratify market expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, without bolstering the case for a bigger move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, aligning with market forecasts for a maintenance of June’s pace. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, slightly below economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.2 percent relative to the prior month,...

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Powell Adds to Dollar Selling With Increased Emphasis on Employment Risks

In this morning’s opening comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell avoided clearly telegraphing an accelerated easing cadence in months ahead, but noted growing concern about job market risks, helping ratify market expectations for a rapid easing cadence in the months ahead. In a widely-anticipated acknowledgement of a more balanced outlook, he said officials would do “everything we can to support a strong labour market as we make further progress toward price stability”, warning that “the upside risks to inflation have diminished, and the downside risks to employment have increased”. “The labour market is no...

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US Inflation Matches Forecasts, Leaving Policy Expectations Stable

Consumer price growth slowed as expected in the United States last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on a heading toward easing policy in September. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year, and climbed 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 2.9 percent on a year-over-year...

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Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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US Payrolls Miss Forecasts, Exacerbating Hard Landing Fears

US labour markets slowed far more than expected in July, making the economy more likely to gouge the runway as it lands in the months ahead. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 114,000 jobs were added in the month, widely missing the 175,000 consensus forecast, and revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 29,000 positions. Wage gains kept decelerating, pointing to a continued softening in demand for workers. Average hourly earnings climbed just 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from 0.3 percent in the prior month, and were up 3.6 percent year-over-year. Perhaps most...

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