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Market Wire, North America

Canadian Inflation Eases, Pulling Loonie Lower

Headline Canadian inflation slowed sharply and a number of underlying price indicators continued to ease last month, effectively releasing pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates for a final time in this tightening cycle. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, falling well under the 5.9 percent increase recorded in January, and below consensus expectations for a 5.4 percent increase. On a month-over-month basis, the change slipped to 0.4 percent – missing a forecasted 0.5 percent increase. Gasoline prices fell -4.7 percent year-over-year, driving the energy...

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Financial Times Reports UBS Has Agreed to Buy Credit Suisse

The Financial Times is reporting that UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an all-share deal that will essentially wipe out equity shareholders in the long-troubled Swiss institution. According to the report, the Swiss National Bank will make an additional $100 billion in liquidity available to Credit Suisse, supplementing a facility set up last week – and the deal involves a “material adverse change” clause that would void the deal if unknown exposures on the bank’s books endanger the acquirer’s credit position. The euro is expected to see gains as Swiss authorities perform their own version of Mario Draghi’s...

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Still-Elevated Core Inflation Lifts Odds on Fed Hike Next Week

US consumer inflation slowed as expected last month, but underlying prices rose by slightly more than forecast, helping support odds on a quarter-point hike at next week’s Federal Reserve. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.0 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This aligned tightly with estimates from economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs slipped -0.7 percent month-over-month as a -7.9-percent drop in fuel oil offset a 1-percent rise in gasoline prices....

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North American Jobs Reports Top Expectations, But Dollar Falls as US Unemployment Rises

311,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, but wage gains decelerated and the unemployment rate jumped as more people entered the workforce – making a half percentage-point hike at the March Federal Reserve meeting marginally less likely. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.6 percent in February, and the participation rate moved up to 62.5 percent from 62.4 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. The previous two payroll prints were revised down by a combined 34,000. Average hourly earnings...

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Bank of Canada Holds Rates, Loonie Tumbles as Forward Guidance Remains Dovish

Following through on a well-telegraphed pledge to hold policy steady, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 4.50 percent this morning, and reiterated a “conditional” commitment to staying the course. The statement-only decision was not accompanied by new forecasts, but officials said “the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation will come down to around 3 percent in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5 percent, and 3-month measures are around 3½ percent. Both will need to come down further, as...

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