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Market Wire, North America

Market Wire: Bank of Canada surprises with a bigger and more dovish hike than expected

The Bank of Canada lifted its benchmark overnight rate by half a percentage point to 4.25 percent this morning, while telegraphing an imminent pause in its monetary tightening cycle. The decision surprised markets that had anticipated a smaller quarter point move – but softened the blow by lowering expectations further out. In the statement accompanying the decision, the central bank said “growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand,” observing that “Canada’s labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows”. Signs of a slowdown were flagged: “While commodity exports...

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Market Wire: Strong jobs reports bolster rate bets

263,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged – suggesting that the labour market remains too tight for the Federal Reserve’s liking. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in November, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent from 62.3 in the prior month, indicating that fewer workers are coming off the sidelines. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in October. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 200,000-job gain,...

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Market Wire: Fed minutes tilt dovish, lifting majors against the dollar

Policymakers on the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee are convinced rates will need to rise more than had been expected in September, but are preparing to moderate the pace of increases in coming months as they seek to assess the impact on the economy. According to a record of the group’s early November meeting published this afternoon, many participants felt there was considerable uncertainty around how high the federal funds rate would need to climb, but “various participants” warned that with inflation remaining high against a backdrop of continued supply and demand imbalances, the ultimate level was “somewhat higher than they...

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Market Wire: Strong North American data releases restrain hopes for monetary policy easing

Canadian inflation stabilized last month, keeping monetary policy expectations largely unchanged. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October, with the month-over-month change hitting 0.6 percent – narrowly missing consensus economic forecasts for a 0.7 percent gain. Gasoline prices leapt 9.2 percent higher month-over-month, partially reflecting a rebound in global oil benchmarks. Food price gains decelerated, but kept climbing, up 0.4 percent on the month, after rising 1.2 percent in September. Shelter costs renewed their ascent, up 0.8 percent month-over-month as higher interest rates took their toll....

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Market Wire: US inflation decelerates, lowering rate expectations and lifting market sentiment

A 1.8 percent month-over-month jump in energy prices – fuelled by a 4 percent recovery in the gasoline sub-index – added to increases in food and other categories in supporting the all-items index. With highly-volatile food and energy components excluded, core prices rose 6.3 percent year-over-year, up 0.3 percent over the prior month. This was well below the 0.5 percent increase markets had expected. As expected, shelter costs kept rising, increasing 0.8 percent in the month as rents and owners equivalent measures moved up. Overall non-energy services inflation turned more mixed, with transportation up 0.7 percent, while medical care costs...

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