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Market Wire, North America

North American Jobs Reports Top Expectations, But Dollar Falls as US Unemployment Rises

311,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, but wage gains decelerated and the unemployment rate jumped as more people entered the workforce – making a half percentage-point hike at the March Federal Reserve meeting marginally less likely. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.6 percent in February, and the participation rate moved up to 62.5 percent from 62.4 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. The previous two payroll prints were revised down by a combined 34,000. Average hourly earnings...

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Bank of Canada Holds Rates, Loonie Tumbles as Forward Guidance Remains Dovish

Following through on a well-telegraphed pledge to hold policy steady, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 4.50 percent this morning, and reiterated a “conditional” commitment to staying the course. The statement-only decision was not accompanied by new forecasts, but officials said “the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation will come down to around 3 percent in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5 percent, and 3-month measures are around 3½ percent. Both will need to come down further, as...

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Dollar Jumps as Powell Warns Rate Hikes Could Accelerate

The dollar and Treasury yields are surging ahead of Senate testimony, in which Federal Reserve Chair Powell will call recent economic data “stronger than expected,” and warn “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes” – verbiage that suggests a half percentage point hike is on the table for the central bank’s March meeting. In comments released on the Fed’s website prior to Powell’s appearance, the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest...

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Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Lifts Terminal Rate Forecasts

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exceeded expectations in January, bolstering the case for continued tightening in the months ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rose 0.6 percent in January from the prior month, up 4.7 percent year-over-year – topping consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5.4 percent from a year ago, well above forecasts.  Personal income rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.9-percent increase in private sector wages and salaries, along with a substantial jump in...

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Canadian Inflation, Retail Numbers Ease Policy Concerns

Headline Canadian inflation slowed last month, and underlying price indicators eased, alleviating pressure on the Bank of Canada to follow its southern counterpart in signalling a more aggressive pace of rate increases. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 5.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in January, below consensus expectations for a 6.1 percent increase, even as the month-over-month change hit 0.5 percent – exceeding a forecasted -0.1 percent decline. Gasoline prices rose 4.7 percent month-over-month. Shelter costs decelerated, up 6.6 percent year-over-year, down from December’s 7-percent pace as rate hikes impacted the housing...

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