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Market Wire, North America

31 Mar 2023

US Inflation Moderates, Canadian Economy Grows More Than Expected

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure missed expectations in February, weakening the case for another hike at the central bank’s May meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in February from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating from January’s Social Security-boosted 0.6-percent gain. Incomes were 6.2 percent higher relative to the same month...

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22 Mar 2023

Federal Reserve Hikes 25 Basis Points, Maintains 2023 Rate Forecast at December Levels

In today’s decision, the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised benchmark rates by a quarter percentage point and hinted at further tightening to come – but policymakers also suggested that the economic impact of recent regional bank collapses remained largely unknowable. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75-to-5.00 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. This brings US rates back to levels last reached in September 2007. In the official statement setting out the decision,...

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21 Mar 2023

Canadian Inflation Eases, Pulling Loonie Lower

Headline Canadian inflation slowed sharply and a number of underlying price indicators continued to ease last month, effectively releasing pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates for a final time in this tightening cycle. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, falling well under the 5.9 percent increase recorded in January, and below consensus expectations for a 5.4 percent increase. On a month-over-month basis, the change slipped to 0.4 percent – missing a forecasted 0.5 percent increase. Gasoline prices fell -4.7 percent year-over-year, driving the energy...

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19 Mar 2023

Financial Times Reports UBS Has Agreed to Buy Credit Suisse

The Financial Times is reporting that UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an all-share deal that will essentially wipe out equity shareholders in the long-troubled Swiss institution. According to the report, the Swiss National Bank will make an additional $100 billion in liquidity available to Credit Suisse, supplementing a facility set up last week – and the deal involves a “material adverse change” clause that would void the deal if unknown exposures on the bank’s books endanger the acquirer’s credit position. The euro is expected to see gains as Swiss authorities perform their own version of Mario Draghi’s...

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14 Mar 2023

Still-Elevated Core Inflation Lifts Odds on Fed Hike Next Week

US consumer inflation slowed as expected last month, but underlying prices rose by slightly more than forecast, helping support odds on a quarter-point hike at next week’s Federal Reserve. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.0 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This aligned tightly with estimates from economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs slipped -0.7 percent month-over-month as a -7.9-percent drop in fuel oil offset a 1-percent rise in gasoline prices....

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