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Market Wire, North America

16 Aug 2023

Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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14 Jun 2023

Federal Reserve pauses, warns more tightening is likely

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates unchanged this afternoon – but put the conditions in place for a hike in July, broadly matching market expectations for a “skip” in the central bank’s monetary tightening trajectory. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00-to-5.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. In the – broadly unchanged – official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee...

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07 Jun 2023

Bank of Canada Hikes, Pushes Loonie Slightly Higher

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark overnight rate to 4.75 percent this morning, noting that “excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated,” and saying “monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2 percent target”. In the statement-only decision, officials said the economy grew at a 3.1 percent annualized pace in the first quarter – beating consensus expectations and the central bank’s forecasts – while household spending remained elevated. “Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost...

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27 May 2023

US debt ceiling deal sets stage for modest relief rally

President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle to avert a US debt default that could have devastated the global economy and financial system.  Several major media organizations have reported the tentative deal will suspend the debt ceiling for two years, with domestic spending frozen near current levels even as outlays on defence and veteran affairs are increased. Firm details are not yet available, but informed opinions suggest work requirements under family assistance and food stamp programmes will be tightened, energy sector approval processes will be streamlined, and some newly-approved Internal Revenue Service...

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16 May 2023

US retail spending and Canadian inflation data point to stubbornly-robust demand

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but consumer demand remained strong, keeping recessionary fears at bay and helping support yields across the front end of the curve.  According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in April, up 0.2 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.8 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -0.8 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.4 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.6 percent, and...

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