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Market Wire, North America

Federal Reserve pauses, warns more tightening is likely

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates unchanged this afternoon – but put the conditions in place for a hike in July, broadly matching market expectations for a “skip” in the central bank’s monetary tightening trajectory. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00-to-5.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. In the – broadly unchanged – official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee...

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Bank of Canada Hikes, Pushes Loonie Slightly Higher

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark overnight rate to 4.75 percent this morning, noting that “excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated,” and saying “monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2 percent target”. In the statement-only decision, officials said the economy grew at a 3.1 percent annualized pace in the first quarter – beating consensus expectations and the central bank’s forecasts – while household spending remained elevated. “Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost...

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US debt ceiling deal sets stage for modest relief rally

President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle to avert a US debt default that could have devastated the global economy and financial system.  Several major media organizations have reported the tentative deal will suspend the debt ceiling for two years, with domestic spending frozen near current levels even as outlays on defence and veteran affairs are increased. Firm details are not yet available, but informed opinions suggest work requirements under family assistance and food stamp programmes will be tightened, energy sector approval processes will be streamlined, and some newly-approved Internal Revenue Service...

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US retail spending and Canadian inflation data point to stubbornly-robust demand

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but consumer demand remained strong, keeping recessionary fears at bay and helping support yields across the front end of the curve.  According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis in April, up 0.2 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.8 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -0.8 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.4 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.6 percent, and...

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Fed hikes, telegraphs imminent pause

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised benchmark rates by a quarter percentage point this afternoon, and – somewhat surprisingly – explicitly put the conditions in place for inaction at upcoming decision dates. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00-to-5.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. The increase brings US rates back to levels last reached in August 2007. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers noted “Economic activity expanded at a...

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