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Market Wire, North America

20 Mar 2024

Fed Bets on “No Landing” Scenario, Lifts Long-Term Rate Projections

For a fifth consecutive meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high, but policymakers raised inflation forecasts and lowered the number of rate cuts expected in the years ahead – suggesting that the risk of a re-acceleration in price growth continues to take precedence over signs of incipient economic weakness in driving the central bank’s reaction function.  In a broadly unchanged statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward...

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19 Mar 2024

Canadian Inflation Slows Sharply, Clobbering Loonie

Canadian headline inflation decelerated faster than expected again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut by June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in January, and well below consensus expectations set closer to 3.1 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.3 percent – also undershooting market forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain. Shelter costs again provided the...

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12 Mar 2024

Well-prepared markets take hotter-than-expected inflation print in stride

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, suggesting that January’s hotter-than-expected print signalled a re-acceleration in underlying inflation pressures, and raising the odds on a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve at next week’s policy meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in February from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This slightly exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the...

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08 Mar 2024

Job Creation Beats Estimates, But Underlying Momentum Slows

The US job creation engine slowed in February, and revisions subtracted heavily from the prior two months – but still managed to generate far more jobs than expected. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 275,000 jobs were added, but the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9 percent as the labour force expanded, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, missing market expectations. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 200,000-job gain, the unemployment rate was seen holding steady at 3.7 percent, and earnings were expected to rise 0.2 percent.  Revisions subtracted...

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06 Mar 2024

Bank of Canada Stays On Hold Amid “Uneven” Inflation Progress

As had been almost universally-expected, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged this morning, but language in Governor Macklem’s statement tilted in a slightly more hawkish direction than market participants had anticipated, helping to boost the exchange rate. In prepared remarks released ahead of the post-decision press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said “Today’s decision reflects Governing Council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5 percent remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate”. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect inflation will be close to 3 percent through the middle of the year...

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