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Market Wire, North America

Job Creation Beats Estimates, But Underlying Momentum Slows

The US job creation engine slowed in February, and revisions subtracted heavily from the prior two months – but still managed to generate far more jobs than expected. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 275,000 jobs were added, but the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9 percent as the labour force expanded, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, missing market expectations. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 200,000-job gain, the unemployment rate was seen holding steady at 3.7 percent, and earnings were expected to rise 0.2 percent.  Revisions subtracted...

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Bank of Canada Stays On Hold Amid “Uneven” Inflation Progress

As had been almost universally-expected, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged this morning, but language in Governor Macklem’s statement tilted in a slightly more hawkish direction than market participants had anticipated, helping to boost the exchange rate. In prepared remarks released ahead of the post-decision press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said “Today’s decision reflects Governing Council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5 percent remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate”. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect inflation will be close to 3 percent through the middle of the year...

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Investors Heave Sigh of Relief As Worst Fears Go Unrealized

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated in January, helping further ratify the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.4 percent in January from the prior month, bringing the three-month annualized pace up to 2.6 percent – still within the central bank’s target range but headed in the wrong direction. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth slowing to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent prior, closely aligning with consensus estimates.  The overall personal consumption expenditures index...

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Fed Worried About Cutting Too Soon

At their late January meeting, Federal Reserve officials saw the potential negative consequences of cutting rates too soon as outweighing the risk of waiting too long – a balance of opinion that should help ratify market expectations for a hold at the March decision. According to a record of the January 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, “most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving sustainably down to 2 percent”. Officials noted a series of risks to the...

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Canadian Inflation Decelerates Sharply in January

Canadian headline inflation decelerated significantly faster than expected in January, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada softened substantially – helping raise odds on an imminent pivot toward easier monetary policy. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in January, down from the 3.4 percent increase recorded in December, and far beneath consensus expectations set closer to 3.3 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices held effectively unchanged – also well below market forecasts for a 0.4 percent gain. Shelter costs provided the...

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