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Market Wire, North America

Jobs Numbers Beat Expectations, Lifting Yields

The US job creation engine sped up in May, further diminishing odds on a rate cut before the November election. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 272,000 jobs were added in the month, solidly overshooting the 175,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 15,000 positions. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, breaking a 28-month stretch below the 4 percent threshold, and wage gains accelerated, exacerbating...

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Bank of Canada Cuts, Telegraphs More Easing Ahead

The Bank of Canada delivered a long-awaited rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying statement set the stage for more easing to come at subsequent policy meetings – a regime shift that should add to momentum pushing the Canadian dollar lower. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply,” and “has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2 percent target”. Officials noted that consumer price growth has slowed, with three-month measures showing “continued downward momentum”. All of the Bank’s...

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Cooling US Prices Halt Dollar’s Advance

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in as forecast in April, but underlying price pressures cooled, slightly raising odds on an easing cycle beginning in the autumn months. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in April from the prior month, matching market forecasts. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth stabilising at 2.8 percent, the same as in March, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 0.3 percent from the prior month, 2.7 percent higher...

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Canadian Inflation Falls Further, Bolstering June Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation decelerated again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut in June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in March, and closely aligned with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.5 percent. Shelter costs again provided the biggest lift, with rents climbing 8.2 percent year over year, while mortgage interest costs rose 24.5 percent....

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US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing

Consumer price growth held steady and “control group” retail sales turned negative in the United States last month, suggesting that the economy is slowly losing momentum, and helping bolster the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.6 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of...

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